Bitcoin/Hryvnia Market Overview: Volatility Dips Amid Consolidation

• Price surged from 5,136,008 to 5,230,573 before consolidating near 5,160,000
• RSI signaled overbought conditions in the morning but later dropped below 50
• Volatility contracted after 18:00 ET, signaling potential range-bound trading
• Bollinger Bands tightened in the latter half of the session

Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 5,136,008 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 5,230,573, and closed at 5,159,972 by 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume was 0.1399 BTC, with a notional turnover of 72,099,917.66 UAH. A bearish correction followed a strong early morning rally, and price has since stabilized near the 5,160,000 psychological level.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern at the session open, followed by a strong bullish trend until 16:30 ET. A bearish divergence then emerged, marked by a 15-minute doji at 17:30 ET and a bearish harami at 18:15 ET. Key support levels include 5,160,000 and 5,144,004, while resistance is at 5,177,967 and 5,190,415.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price spent most of the session above the 20SMA and briefly crossed the 50SMA during the midday rally. The 20SMA is at 5,162,500, and the 50SMA is at 5,167,000. Daily, price remains below the 200DMA at 5,172,000, indicating a longer-term neutral-to-bullish tilt.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative after 17:00 ET, reflecting fading momentum. The histogram peaked at 16:30 ET and then gradually decayed. RSI reached 72 in the early session before dropping to 49, signaling a potential neutral shift. Overbought conditions in the morning contrast with oversold conditions at the close, hinting at exhaustion on both sides.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning rally and then narrowed significantly from 18:00 ET onward. Price traded within a tight range in the final hours, with the close near the 20-period lower band. The narrowing of the bands suggests a potential breakout or continuation, but current positioning favors consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was concentrated in the morning with a spike at 16:30 ET (0.00926 BTC). The late afternoon saw minimal trading, with only 0.0001 BTC traded between 19:00 and 21:00 ET. Notional turnover peaked at 1,752,400 UAH at 16:30 ET, but overall activity has declined significantly, suggesting reduced urgency in both buying and selling.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing (5,136,008 to 5,230,573), key levels are 5,186,183 (38.2%), 5,163,233 (50%), and 5,149,623 (61.8%). Price closed near the 50% retracement level, a key area to watch for potential reversal cues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could exploit the observed consolidation phase by entering short positions on break below 5,160,000 with a stop above 5,177,967, and long positions on a break above 5,190,415 with a stop below 5,181,821. This approach leverages Fibonacci and key candlestick formations to capture both directional and range-bound setups. Given the low volatility and declining volume, this strategy may perform well in a low-noise environment.