Bitcoin/Hryvnia Market Overview (BTCUAH)

• Bitcoin/Hryvnia traded volatile with sharp swings below 4970000 UAH, ending 24 hours lower by ~2.5%.
• Strong bearish momentum seen in 15-minute RSI and MACD divergence, signaling oversold but not yet a reversal.
• Volatility spiked during 18:45–20:00 ET as prices dropped ~2.7%, but volume remained muted.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion, indicating increased uncertainty among traders.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 4940000 and 4920000 UAH acted as key short-term support.

Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 5003163 UAH on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4965686 UAH on 2025-09-19 at the same time. The 24-hour range was 5024915 UAH (high) to 4934967 UAH (low), with total volume traded at ~0.175 BTC and notional turnover at ~87.2 million UAH.

The price structure shows a bearish bias over the 24-hour period, especially in the second half of the day. A sharp decline occurred between 18:45–20:00 ET, with price dropping from 5006742 to 4981890 UAH. This move formed a bearish engulfing pattern, followed by a series of lower lows and weak bullish attempts. Support levels emerged at 4970371 UAH and 4965603 UAH, with the latter acting as a key psychological and Fibonacci retracement level.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels identified in the 15-minute chart include 4965603 UAH (48.8% of the recent bullish swing) and 4934967 UAH (low of the day). Resistance levels at 4970371 UAH and 4981890 UAH were tested multiple times without confirmation. The formation of bearish engulfing and hanging man patterns near 4980000 UAH suggests exhaustion in the short-term upside, reinforcing a continuation of the bearish trend.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50-period 15-minute) remained bearishly aligned, with the 50-period line consistently below the 20-period line. On the daily chart, price sits below the 50/100/200-period moving averages, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. The 200-period line at ~5050000 UAH remains a distant resistance, with no immediate sign of a reversal to that level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI hit oversold territory in the final hours but failed to show a convincing reversal, suggesting that the bearish trend may continue. Divergence between price and both indicators (MACD and RSI) during the 02:00–04:00 ET period highlights weakening bullish pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly during the 18:45–20:00 ET period, with Bollinger Bands widening. Price closed near the lower band during the last 6 hours of the session, reinforcing the bearish tone. A contraction in the bands near the 21:00–03:00 ET period indicated a consolidation phase before the sharp decline.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased slightly during the sharp declines, but remained under 0.02 BTC per 15-minute bar on average. Notional turnover spiked during the 18:45–20:00 ET period, with the highest turnover observed at 4970000 UAH. Divergence between volume and price suggests a lack of conviction in the recent bearish move and could hint at possible short-term stabilization.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 5003163–4934967 UAH swing, key support levels at 4940000 UAH (61.8%) and 4920000 UAH (78.6%) were identified. The 4965686 UAH close aligned with the 38.2% retracement level, acting as a temporary floor. A break below 4934967 UAH would indicate a continuation of the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current structure, a possible backtesting strategy could involve short-term bearish setups triggered by a close below 4965603 UAH with a stop above 4970371 UAH. This would align with the bearish engulfing pattern and Fibonacci support levels. Traders could also monitor the RSI and MACD for a potential oversold bounce around 4934967 UAH, with a target of 4940000 UAH. The strategy would benefit from low volatility and high conviction in bearish bias.