Bitcoin/Hryvnia Market Overview

• Price opened at 4,998,867 UAH, climbed to 5,010,076 UAH before retracting to a 24-hour low of 4,943,293 UAH and closing at 4,994,369 UAH.
• A bullish reversal pattern formed near 4,943,455 UAH, hinting at potential short-term support.
• Volatility expanded mid-day with a 6,783 UAH swing; volume surged at 21:30 ET as price dipped sharply.
• RSI dipped near oversold territory, while MACD showed a weak positive divergence.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the midday decline, suggesting increased uncertainty.

Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4,998,867 UAH on October 27, 2025 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 5,010,076 UAH on the same day. After a protracted pullback, the pair hit a 24-hour low of 4,943,293 UAH before settling at 4,994,369 UAH at 12:00 ET on October 28. Total traded volume was approximately 0.0066 BTC, with notional turnover reaching ~33,060,603.45 UAH over the 24-hour period.

The price structure shows a clear bearish breakdown after a brief consolidation phase, punctuated by a sharp correction from 5,010,076 UAH to 4,943,455 UAH in a single 15-minute candle. A potential support level appears to have emerged around the 4,943,293 UAH level, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming at the close. On the 20/50 EMA crossover, the 50 EMA crossed below the 20 EMA, reinforcing the bearish bias on the 15-minute chart. Over the daily timeframe, both 50 and 200 EMA lines are sloping downward, consistent with a longer-term bearish bias.

MACD lines crossed into the negative territory from above the zero line, suggesting waning bullish momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory briefly, but this did not trigger a strong rebound, indicating a possible breakdown in short-term buying interest. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the price decline, with the close near the lower band, indicating a period of increased volatility. Notably, volume spiked during the sharp dip at 21:30 ET, suggesting a significant liquidation event. The divergence between low price and higher volume may signal a potential reversal in the short term.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the key swing high of 5,010,076 UAH to the low of 4,943,293 UAH suggest critical levels at 4,976,685 UAH (38.2%) and 4,959,688 UAH (61.8%). The price briefly dipped below the 4,959,688 UAH level before stabilizing, suggesting that this area may become a pivotal point for near-term direction. If the price holds above this level, it could indicate the beginning of a consolidation phase or a potential short-term rally. If not, further downside is likely in the coming hours.

Backtest Hypothesis
The MACD-golden-cross backtest for BTCUAH would benefit from either using the BTCUSD.UDC symbol and converting to UAH using USD/UAH FX rates or, if the correct symbol is available, testing directly on that pair. Given the low volume and erratic price behavior observed, a hybrid approach using BTCUSD × USD/UAH might offer a more accurate reflection of the true dynamics in the BTCUAH pair. The current technical setup—namely, the bearish EMA crossovers, negative MACD, and volume divergence—suggests that a short-side strategy entering on a breakdown of the 4,959,688 UAH Fibonacci level could have merit for a backtest, provided it is paired with a stop above 5,010,076 UAH to manage risk. The potential reward would need to be weighed against the high volatility and thin liquidity conditions observed in this market.