Bitcoin/Hryvnia Market Overview for 2025-09-23

• Price action for BTCUAH remained range-bound with choppy 15-minute candles and no clear directional bias.
• Key resistance held at 4,843,456.0, but failed to break higher, suggesting caution in bullish momentum.
• Volatility spiked in early AM ET, but volume failed to confirm strength, hinting at potential indecision.
• RSI and MACD showed no clear overbought or oversold signals, reinforcing a neutral market tone.

BTCUAH Daily Open, High, Low, Close and Market Metrics

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-22, Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4,829,221.0 UAH. Over the next 24 hours, the pair reached a high of 4,868,469.0 and a low of 4,792,006.0 before closing at 4,836,699.0 at 12:00 ET. Total volume during the period was approximately 0.07425 BTC, while notional turnover was roughly 35.62 million UAH. Price action remains subdued with no clear directional breakout.

Structure & Key Levels

Price activity on the 15-minute chart showed choppy behavior, with candles forming several indecisive patterns including small-bodied dojis and failed bullish/horizontal consolidations. Notable resistance levels emerged at 4,843,456.0, 4,859,201.0, and 4,868,469.0, all of which failed to be broken with conviction. A strong support level appeared at 4,792,006.0, where price found temporary refuge during the early morning volatility. The 4,836,699.0 level is now acting as a potential pivot, with the market showing reluctance to move decisively either side.

Moving Averages and Trends

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remain closely aligned, indicating no strong short-term trend formation. Over the daily timeframe, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages have begun to converge in a flat to slightly upward bias, suggesting that a longer-term bullish bias could emerge if price action manages to stabilize above 4,843,456.0 for a sustained period. The lack of clear separation between these indicators suggests a market in consolidation.

MACD and RSI Momentum

The MACD histogram remains near the zero line, with no strong divergence or convergence visible, indicating flat momentum. RSI has oscillated between 48 and 52 over the 24-hour period, suggesting a balanced market with no overbought or oversold extremes. This reinforces the view of a range-bound market where traders are not showing a clear directional preference. Neither indicator is currently signaling a strong reversal or breakout.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility with the price hovering near the midband for much of the session. A brief expansion occurred during the 03:00–04:00 ET window, but this was followed by a contraction as volume waned. Price remains within the upper and lower bands, but without any breakout confirmation. This implies that volatility is not extreme and that the market remains cautious, with traders potentially awaiting more catalysts before committing capital.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume and turnover remain inconsistent throughout the day, with significant spikes observed during the 02:00–04:00 ET window, particularly around the 4,821,755.0 support level. However, this spike failed to produce a strong price reaction, indicating potential divergence or lack of conviction in the movement. Later in the session, from 13:30–14:00 ET, turnover increased slightly again, but without a clear directional bias. This pattern of unconfirmed volume spikes raises questions about the strength of any potential support or resistance levels.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 24-hour range (4,792,006.0 to 4,868,469.0) show the 38.2% level at 4,836,699.0, which aligns with the current close price. The 61.8% level is at 4,851,610.0, a level that the price attempted to reach but failed to surpass. This suggests that the 4,836,699.0 level is a significant psychological pivot. On the 15-minute chart, retracements on the 02:00–04:00 ET consolidation show the 38.2% level at 4,821,146.0, which was briefly tested but not decisively broken.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering long positions on BTCUAH when price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band with a corresponding increase in volume, and exits when the price closes below the 20-period moving average. The 24-hour data shows that price briefly touched the upper Bollinger Band during the 13:30–14:00 ET window but failed to generate sufficient volume to confirm a breakout. A backtest would need to evaluate whether this pattern, if repeated with higher volume, could serve as a viable entry signal, especially when aligned with Fibonacci levels or moving average crossovers. The current data suggests that such signals should be treated with caution until stronger volume and price confirmation are observed.