Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) Market Overview: 2025-11-05

Summary
• Price declined from 4,520,068.0 to 4,494,682.0 UAH amid choppy 24-hour price action.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with a 15-minute low of 4,373,037.0 UAH.
• Volume remained subdued, with no significant accumulation or distribution observed.

Opening and Price Range

Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4,520,068.0 UAH on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4,494,682.0 UAH on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET. The pair touched an intraday high of 4,520,068.0 UAH and a low of 4,373,037.0 UAH. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 0.96647 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 429,966,000 UAH.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour window displayed a bearish bias, with several downward trends punctuated by minor retracements. A notable bearish engulfing pattern was observed during the 19:00–19:15 ET session as price fell from 4,462,139.0 to 4,455,907.0 UAH. Later, a bullish reversal formation appeared at the 22:15–22:30 ET period when price surged from 4,423,850.0 to 4,473,801.0 UAH, though this failed to establish a sustainable trend.

A key support level appears to have emerged at 4,404,726.0 UAH, where price has bounced multiple times. Resistance is clustering around 4,462,346.0–4,475,252.0 UAH, with several attempts to break above this range failing.

Moving Averages

For the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a bearish crossover, with the shorter MA falling below the longer. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100-period and 200-period lines, but the trend remains flat, indicating a potential transition in market sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD remains in negative territory, with bearish divergence evident in the histogram. The RSI has moved toward oversold levels during periods of sharp decline but has not yet crossed into strong oversold territory (below 30), suggesting some resilience in the market. Momentum appears to be weakening overall, and a reversal could occur if the RSI retests key support levels.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded, with price moving between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands on multiple occasions. The most recent contraction occurred just before the 02:30–02:45 ET session, where the band width tightened slightly before a sharp upward move. Price has remained within the 2-standard deviation range, indicating a contained but choppy trading environment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key inflection points, particularly during the 22:15–22:30 ET period when price surged from 4,423,850.0 to 4,473,801.0 UAH on 0.00093 BTC of volume. This suggests increased participation during bullish moves. However, volume during the 05:30–05:45 ET session was higher than turnover, indicating possible divergence between price and participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing (4,455,907.0 to 4,481,720.0 UAH), key retracement levels at 4,462,346.0 (38.2%) and 4,449,246.0 (61.8%) appear to be acting as both support and resistance. On the daily chart, retracement levels from the 4,373,037.0 to 4,494,682.0 swing suggest that a test of 4,449,246.0 UAH could be significant in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current data limitations, a synthetic BTCUAH price series could be constructed by combining BTCUSD and USD/UAH FX data. This would allow for the calculation of RSI and MACD signals that align with the native BTCUAH price structure. A backtest using this synthetic approach could help validate the recent bearish divergence observed in the 15-minute MACD and RSI. Such a strategy could be refined by testing the strength of key Fibonacci and moving average levels to identify high-probability entry points for either short-term countertrend trades or longer-term position trading.