Bitcoin Hovers at Precipice as Fed Signals Loom and Liquidity Swells

Bitcoin’s price action has been marked by structural fragility as it trades in a narrow range near the $111,000 level. Over the past two weeks, BTC has oscillated between $107,000 and $113,000 without a clear breakout, indicating a cautious market sentiment. While bulls have managed to defend the $111,000 support level, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in a neutral zone, having only moved from 55 to 56.12 as of the latest data. Without a decisive move above the 65 RSI threshold, a clean breakout cannot yet be confirmed.

The upcoming macroeconomic calendar is expected to play a critical role in shaping Bitcoin’s next move. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently revised downward the previous year’s job growth by 911,000 positions, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. This development has rekindled expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut, which could provide a short-term boost to Bitcoin. Economists are currently pricing in a 0.3% month-on-month increase in the headline CPI for September, which would elevate the index to 2.9%—its highest level since January 2025.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on September 11 and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the following week are seen as pivotal for Bitcoin’s trajectory. Markets are closely monitoring these events for signals of inflationary pressure and monetary policy direction. The crypto market appears to be already anticipating a directional move, with on-chain data suggesting that market participants are positioning themselves ahead of potential volatility.

Notably, liquidity levels in the crypto market have increased, with Binance recording a significant net stablecoin inflow of $6.2 billion on September 8. This surge in stablecoins is seen as a sign of fresh liquidity entering the platform, potentially signaling a strategic move by traders ahead of any major macroeconomic developments. The inflow suggests that Binance is pre-positioned for a potential volatile swing in Bitcoin prices, though whether this liquidity will lead to a bullish breakout or a bearish correction remains uncertain.

The current environment reflects a delicate balance for Bitcoin. With momentum indicators muted and macroeconomic volatility still in play, the $111,000 level remains an unconfirmed floor. Traders are moving with caution, and the next few days will likely determine whether Bitcoin can consolidate its position or face a significant pullback. A Fed rate cut in response to weak labor data could trigger a short-term rally, but any shift in the macroeconomic narrative could just as quickly reverse the momentum. The upcoming CPI and FOMC events will be key focal points for both institutional and retail market participants.