Bitcoin Hovers Near $109,000 as Institutional Buying Surges 2.8%

Bitcoin's price has been hovering near the $109,000 mark, sparking debate about whether this is a sign of real momentum or just a temporary rebound. The recent price action has been influenced by significant institutional buying, particularly from Strategy, which has added to its holdings, bringing its total to 597,325 BTC. This acquisition represents over 2.8% of the total Bitcoin supply, underscoring the growing institutional interest in the cryptocurrency.

However, despite this institutional accumulation, the broader market metrics present a mixed picture. The price of Bitcoin has struggled to break through the $110,000 level, indicating a lack of strong follow-through in recent rallies. This divergence between institutional positioning and market behavior highlights the tension in Bitcoin's price movement.

The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the difference in BTC price between Coinbase and other exchanges, has remained positive for the past two weeks. This positivity reflects ongoing demand from U.S.-based investors, with the premium rate hovering around 0.03–0.06. Historically, sustained premium zones have preceded upward price movements, but this has typically required strong retail confirmation, which has not yet materialized. The current sentiment is mildly bullish but lacks the excitement seen in previous rallies.

The open-interest weighted funding rate for Bitcoin remains modestly positive, suggesting that traders are betting on further upside. However, the rate has not surged as it did during previous major breakouts, indicating a cautious approach to leveraged positions. This hesitant bullishness reflects a bet on continuation rather than conviction. If institutional buying continues at the current pace, Bitcoin's price could gradually rise. However, if retail or leveraged players start exiting, institutional inflows alone may not be sufficient to maintain prices above $109,000.

Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin's price is holding above $108,000, with liquidity pockets stacked between $110,000 and $111,500. If the current structure holds, the price could attempt to reclaim the $110,500 level, a key point where prior rallies have failed. However, if buyer exhaustion sets in, a drop toward $106,000 or even $103,000 remains a possibility. The lack of growing funding rates and net exchange outflows adds caution to the otherwise bullish setup.

Bitcoin is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle, with resistance placed at $110,500. This level needs to be broken for the price to reach a new all-time high. Conversely, strong support is forming near $108,700, creating a classical squeeze zone. The next leg of Bitcoin's price movement will be determined by which direction the price breaks first.

In summary, while institutional wallets are actively buying and Coinbase inflows reflect strong appetite, derivatives and net flows remain skeptical. The bullish case for Bitcoin hinges on follow-through from retail investors. If retail participation increases, the rally could sustain. Otherwise, this price movement might be just another temporary rebound before a potential drop.