Bitcoin Hovers Near $106,400 Awaiting Breakout or Breakdown

Bitcoin is currently trading around $106,400, exhibiting signs of a potential breakout or breakdown from its current wedge formation. The Wyckoff schematic suggests a possible spring phase that could propel Bitcoin to $125,000 by late July. Meanwhile, support levels are firmly established near $92,000, with low trading volume indicating market indecision as participants await confirmation of the next move.

Bitcoin’s price action is currently aligned with a classic Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic, a pattern that has held since March 2025. An Automatic Reaction (AR) occurred at $106,400, leading to a prolonged consolidation zone that has now compressed into a narrowing wedge pattern. At the time of analysis, Bitcoin was trading around $106,359.39, just below the last observed high of $111,965.80. The accumulation phase began after a Spring event on April 6, forming a key low near $85,000. The chart displays a textbook Wyckoff Phase D, with Bitcoin showing signs of higher lows and lower highs within the triangle formation.

A “Golden Cross” recently occurred, where the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day, traditionally signaling bullish sentiment. Investors and traders are now faced with a pivotal question: Is Bitcoin primed for a breakout to $125,000 or a breakdown below $92,000? Analyst projections on social media have pegged $125,000 as the upper resistance if a breakout occurs by July or August. In contrast, if the structure fails, price retracement could revisit the 50% Fibonacci level, calculated around $92,000. The accumulation schematic on the chart mirrors Wyckoff’s Phase E breakout scenario, where price typically rallies fast past resistance lines. The schematic also reflects a significant liquidity trap below $92,000, possibly shaking out weak hands before a major push upward.

The support zone spans between $78,255.49 and $92,000, covering the most recent price consolidation area. Additional levels are marked at $96,000, $100,222.47, $103,618.63, and $108,000. These could act as short-term targets or resistance during volatility. Meanwhile, upper targets near $128,000 and $130,088.26 are plotted in alignment with Fibonacci extensions from earlier cycles. The narrative draws from past Wyckoff patterns, with similarities traced to previous bullish structures that ended with rapid market expansion phases. The annotated pattern and dates project a climactic move around late July. Both directions are still in play, depending on breakout strength.

Leverage traders are using tight stop losses amid growing uncertainty about the breakout direction and market catalysts. While spot investors remain largely passive, comments on the post show growing interest in buying during dips below key support levels. A user raised concerns about Bitcoin possibly falling under $100,000, to which the analyst responded that $92,000 is the lowest “they will chase.” This outlook is based on the 50% golden ratio pullback level from Bitcoin’s prior run, acting as a psychological support. Volume remains muted, suggesting buyers and sellers are both waiting for confirmation from the wedge breakout or breakdown.

The range-bound nature of recent movement is pushing traders to plan for both bullish and bearish scenarios, as the apex of the triangle nears. Public comments reflect a sentiment mix—some expect further accumulation, others prepare for volatility with strict entry points. As Bitcoin coils tightly within this Wyckoff wedge, all eyes remain fixed on the $106,400 pivot and whether it leads to a trend explosion.