Bitcoin Hovers Near $104,000 as FOMC Decision Looms

Bitcoin is currently experiencing intensified sell pressure as traders prepare for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement. The price of Bitcoin is hovering near critical support levels, with the cryptocurrency maintaining a foothold above $104,000. However, sustained bearish momentum could drive the price down to the psychologically significant $100,000 mark, which could impact broader market sentiment.

According to analysts, Bitcoin’s ability to stay above the $102,000-$103,000 zone is pivotal for recovery. This range is seen as a high-risk, high-reward opportunity, contingent on geopolitical stability. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at approximately $104,269 serves as a critical technical barrier. A decisive break below this level could precipitate a sharper decline toward $100,000, a psychological threshold that traders are closely monitoring.

Market indicators such as the flattening 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and a neutral relative strength index (RSI) near 50 suggest potential range-bound trading in the short term. However, the stakes remain high as geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors, including the upcoming FOMC decision, inject volatility into the market. Traders should watch for a sustained move above the 20-day EMA to signal a possible recovery toward the downtrend line and the inverted head-and-shoulders neckline near $112,800.

Most major altcoins are consolidating within established ranges, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid Bitcoin’s indecision. Ether (ETH) is trading between $2,323 and $2,738, with resistance near $2,738 indicating profit-taking pressure. XRP remains confined between $2.00 and $2.34, with a breakdown below $2.00 potentially triggering a decline to $1.61. Binance Coin (BNB) faces resistance at the 20-day EMA ($653) and critical support at $634, where a breach could lead to a drop toward $580. Solana (SOL) is testing the $140 support, with a breakdown risking completion of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern and further declines. Dogecoin (DOGE) battles to hold $0.16, and failure here could see a slide to $0.14 or lower.

These patterns underscore the importance of key support levels in maintaining market stability. Investors should remain vigilant for signs of breakdowns or breakouts that could dictate the next directional move. Analysts emphasize the necessity for Bitcoin to maintain levels above $102,000 to $103,000 to foster bullish momentum, contingent on geopolitical calm. CryptoQuant contributor Gaah highlights that Bitcoin’s Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI) stabilizing near 50% reflects a neutral market phase, suggesting neither exhaustion nor exuberance. This positioning leaves room for potential upside if buyer confidence returns post-FOMC.

Given the heightened volatility expected around the FOMC announcement, traders should consider employing risk management strategies such as setting stop-loss orders near critical support levels and avoiding overexposure. Monitoring volume trends and price action around the 50-day SMA and 20-day EMA will be crucial for identifying potential breakout or breakdown signals. Additionally, diversifying exposure across altcoins showing relative strength or stable consolidation patterns could mitigate downside risks while positioning for potential rebounds.

Bitcoin’s price action near the $104,000 mark amid FOMC anticipation highlights a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency market. Maintaining support above $102,000 to $103,000 is essential for a bullish recovery, while a breach below $100,000 could trigger deeper declines. Altcoins largely remain range-bound but face critical support tests that could influence broader market sentiment. Traders and investors should closely monitor technical indicators and geopolitical developments to navigate this high-risk, high-reward environment effectively.