Bitcoin Hovers Below $103K Ahead of FOMC Meeting

Bitcoin's price has been rallying below $103,000, with market participants eagerly awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for potential price breakthroughs. The crypto asset has consolidated above the six-figure range, as investors brace themselves for the upcoming FOMC meeting.

The CME's FedWatch tool predicts a 99.5% chance that the Fed will keep its interest rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%. However, market attention is more focused on the tone of Fed chair Jerome Powell's statements, as the markets have already "priced in" unchanged interest rates. A strict or hawkish stance from Powell could lead to a spike in bearish volatility for Bitcoin.

Analysts have identified the downside target for Bitcoin around $94,000, with an untested 4-hour fair value gap in that region. If the FVG range is breached, BTC could drop under its previous range low at $88,900, signaling a potential new bearish directional bias. Byzantine General, a futures market analyst, shares a similar opinion, expecting BTC prices to possibly retest the $94,000 to $92,000 range before the FOMC meeting.

One key difference between the previous and upcoming FOMC meeting is that this will be the first Fed gathering under the Trump administration. Last week, President Trump publicly demanded that the Federal Reserve should consider cutting interest rates, citing declining oil prices. However, the Federal Reserve is an independent entity and does not need to consider the US President's opinion. Market speculations are currently bullish, but a clear picture will only be available after the FOMC meeting.

A 4-hour candle close above equal highs (EQHs) at $107,000 would take BTC above the descending trendline resistance and confirm a break of structure (BOS). This would allow Bitcoin to move toward another all-time high value above $110,000, with the crypto asset entering another price discovery period in February.