Bitcoin Hovers Above $100,000 as Long-Term Holders Sell to Corporate Buyers

Bitcoin has been hovering above the $100,000 mark, but the reasons behind this consolidation phase are more intricate than the surface-level narratives of institutional enthusiasm and ETF euphoria. Leading analysts suggest that a silent rotation is underway, where long-term holders are offloading their positions while corporate treasuries and institutional buyers are quietly absorbing the supply.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, provided a detailed analysis, challenging the belief that Bitcoin’s price stagnation amid surging demand is unusual. He noted that long-term holders, or "OG Bitcoin Whales," have been selling their positions since the ETF launch in January 2024. Edwards pointed out that older coins are being redistributed, and a newer class of holders, primarily treasury-oriented entities, are stepping in aggressively. This trend was predicted by Edwards earlier, who suggested that corporate adoption would eventually surpass ETF inflows in relevance.

Edwards highlighted that 6-month-plus BTC holders, known for strategic, non-speculative accumulation, have significantly increased in the past two months. This cohort’s aggressive accumulation has historically preceded bullish squeezes. However, Edwards cautioned that broader on-chain data still signals fragility, indicating that while the flywheel has momentum, it is not yet immune to systemic pressure.

Mauricio Di Bartolomeo, Co-founder and CSO at Ledn, offered an alternative theory. He suggested that the apparent two flows—long-term holders selling and treasury entities buying—might be the same trade. Di Bartolomeo framed the shift as generational, pointing out that many early adopters may prefer traditional financial custody over self-sovereign wallets. Edwards, however, argued that if ETF migration was driving the reclassification of long-term holders, it would be evident across multiple aging cohorts.

The apparent dissonance between rising demand and stagnant price has also prompted commentary from on-chain analyst TXMC. He warned that most observers misunderstand what actually sets Bitcoin’s price. TXMC described Bitcoin’s fragmented market structure as a web of siloed exchanges, loosely synchronized through cross-exchange market-making. He argued that while ETFs and institutional desks are accumulating large quantities of Bitcoin, much of this activity is routed through OTC desks that bypass order books entirely. This explanation may help reconcile why ETF inflows in the billions of dollars have failed to push BTC significantly higher.

Despite growing bullishness in cohort composition, the real test lies ahead. Whether corporate treasuries and ETF managers can absorb the remaining exit waves of Bitcoin’s earliest holders remains to be seen. But if Edwards is right, the rotation may already be past its critical phase. Edwards concluded that the flywheel still has a long way to go, and if history is any guide, these moments of consolidation amid redistribution tend to precede volatility—not follow it.