Bitcoin Hovers Near $100,000 ATH With 25% Supply Liquid

Bitcoin has been hovering near its all-time high (ATH) above $100,000, but the spot trading volume remains low, indicating a market cooling without the usual speculative fervor. This situation is driven by long-term holders who are primarily responsible for the price stability, while short-term traders play a diminished role. According to COINOTAG insights, only 25% of Bitcoin’s supply is liquid, creating scarcity that supports elevated prices despite muted retail participation and lower spot volume.

Bitcoin’s sustained price above the $100,000 mark contrasts sharply with the subdued spot trading volume observed across major exchanges. This divergence suggests a cooling market phase where speculative intensity is notably absent. The current market environment is characterized by stability rather than overheating, indicating a maturation of Bitcoin’s price action. The predominance of green circles on the Bitcoin Spot Volume Bubble Map from CryptoQuant signals a decline in trading volume growth, reflecting a market that is consolidating rather than experiencing a speculative surge, a departure from previous bull run behaviors.

Breaking beyond the current ATH may require significant macroeconomic catalysts such as interest rate reductions or regulatory easing. Until such events materialize, a strategy of patience and vigilance remains prudent for investors navigating this phase. The recent price ascent has not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in spot volume, contrasting with earlier 2024 rallies where volume spikes indicated heightened speculative activity. The data suggest that accumulation by long-term holders, rather than short-term trading, is underpinning the current price levels. Spot volume currently stands at $7.7 billion, significantly below previous cyclical peaks, reinforcing the narrative of a market consolidating on a foundation of steady demand rather than speculative excess.

Another critical factor contributing to Bitcoin’s price resilience is the shrinking liquid supply. Only approximately 25% of Bitcoin’s total supply remains liquid, with the vast majority held by entities unlikely to sell in the near term. This supply shock is a significant driver of price support, meaning that even moderate buying pressure can sustain or elevate prices despite low trading volumes. The reduction in liquid supply also implies diminished retail investor FOMO, which historically fueled rapid price surges. Instead, the market appears to be transitioning toward a paradigm dominated by long-term value investors prioritizing accumulation over short-term speculation.

Given the current market dynamics, investors should consider the implications of a low-volume, high-price environment supported by scarcity and long-term holding. Without new macroeconomic stimuli or technological advancements, Bitcoin’s price may experience periods of consolidation. Market participants are advised to monitor key indicators such as spot volume trends, liquid supply metrics, and macroeconomic developments closely. This approach will help identify potential inflection points and opportunities in an evolving market landscape.

Bitcoin’s proximity to its all-time high amid subdued spot volume and a shrinking liquid supply underscores a market in transition. The dominance of long-term holders and scarcity-driven price support marks a shift away from speculative trading toward sustainable accumulation. While this environment demands patience, it also lays a stable foundation for future growth, contingent on favorable macroeconomic catalysts and regulatory clarity.