Bitcoin Holds Steady Despite $1.8 Billion Profit-Taking by Long-Term Holders

Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range of $100,000 to $110,000, primarily due to profit-taking by mid-to-long-term holders. Data indicates that these holders, who have been in the market for 3 to 10 years, have realized significant profits, with the 3–5 year cohort cashing out $849 million, the 7–10 year cohort $485 million, and the 1–2 year cohort $445 million. Despite this selling pressure, analysts view this redistribution as typical in bull markets and believe the market is effectively absorbing the selling.

CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent noted that the consistent movement of older coins is a positive signal in a bull cycle. The Spent Output Age Bands metric and Binary Coin Days Destroyed data suggest that while older coins are being moved, the market remains stable due to steady demand. Dent also observed increased activity from coins held for 1–3 years, indicating profit-taking from buyers of the previous cycle. This shift in market leadership from older to newer holders is seen as a sign of strength rather than weakness.

Historical data suggests that July could be a favorable month for Bitcoin. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 7.56% return in July, with eight gains out of twelve periods, including a significant 24.03% surge in 2020. The third quarter often sees robust returns for risk assets, and Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 suggests that new all-time highs above $112,000 could be achieved as early as this month. Technical analysis by CryptoCon indicates a 195-day sideways movement since December 18, 2024, with only 36 days of notable price action, pointing to a long "Cycle 4 Ranges Expansion" phase. This slow cycle aligns with historical patterns of brief price breakouts masking a broader uptrend.

If historical patterns repeat, the next breakout could drive a swift surge toward the $140,000–$150,000 range before entering another cooling phase. This analysis suggests that despite the current profit-taking, the market is absorbing the selling pressure, paving the way for a potential bullish July. Analysts' forecasts indicate that once Bitcoin attains new highs, it could exhibit significant volatility, but the overall trend remains positive.