Bitcoin Holds Above $85,000 Amid U.S. Market Uncertainty

Bitcoin is currently trading near a critical technical resistance level, with multiple macroeconomic factors influencing capital allocation patterns in U.S. markets. On the daily chart, Bitcoin has broken out of a multi-month descending channel and is consolidating above both its 200-day simple and exponential moving averages, indicating resilience near the $85,000 level. This technical positioning suggests that Bitcoin may be poised for further upward movement, potentially reaching $88,500 if it can hold above $85,500.

This technical strength in Bitcoin coincides with a surge in macro uncertainty. There has been a sharp reversal in foreign official demand for U.S. equities, with net monthly flows from foreign central banks turning deeply negative. This liquidation of U.S. assets, including equities, Treasuries, and the dollar, has raised questions about confidence in the stability of U.S. capital markets. The synchronized selling of these assets undermines the structural basis of U.S. economic support and may prompt policy intervention, although such intervention is unlikely to materialize given the self-inflicted nature of the situation.

Additionally, the average U.S. tariff rate has been revised to 22.8 percent, nearly ten times higher than the prior year and the steepest level since the early 20th century. The imposition of elevated tariffs, primarily on China, could accelerate capital redirection away from U.S. markets, amplifying foreign divestment. Some businesses have already stated that moving manufacturing outside the U.S. is a more profitable strategy under currently elevated import taxes. For example, a global chocolate brand has commented that it is cheaper to manufacture abroad due to tariffs.

These factors contextualize Bitcoin’s current price behavior as a sign of strength amid weakening international confidence in U.S. instruments. As global demand for U.S. assets declines, Bitcoin's resilience and potential for upward movement suggest that it may be attracting capital that is being redirected away from traditional U.S. markets. This shift in capital allocation patterns highlights the growing role of Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty.