Bitcoin Holds Above $80,000 Amid Market Sell-Off, Analysts Eye $100,000

Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating above $80,000 this month, amidst a broader equity market sell-off. A renowned cryptocurrency analyst has shared a cautiously optimistic outlook for the asset this April. The analyst, known as PlanB, has stated that Bitcoin’s recent price decline is not due to internal cryptocurrency dynamics but rather broader economic factors, such as uncertainty surrounding tariff policies. According to PlanB, Bitcoin’s trajectory this month will depend on a broader market recovery, particularly how the S&P 500 responds to the economic uncertainty tied to tariff policies.

Despite the stock market experiencing a massive price wipeout due to tariff-related fears, Bitcoin has primarily remained stable. PlanB noted that if the S&P 500 rebounds to 6,000, Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 again, with a potential climb to $300,000 aligning with gold prices, stock market trends, and his stock-to-flow (S2F) model. However, he emphasized that this is not a guarantee. PlanB also pointed out that April has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, suggesting that the month could be a launchpad for even higher price action heading into May and June.

Based on his long-standing stock-to-flow model, PlanB expects Bitcoin to ride the post-halving wave and break into six figures as part of a broader bullish cycle. He reaffirmed that the 2024 bull market remains intact, emphasizing that Bitcoin is currently in the “greed phase” of the cycle. He compared the current stage to previous cycles in 2013, 2017, and 2021, each of which saw Bitcoin surge massively following halving events. According to his forecast, the real market euphoria may still lie ahead, potentially unfolding later in the year. PlanB added that most people are in profits, which he considers quite healthy and bullish.

The stock-to-flow model has historically aligned with major Bitcoin rallies. The model suggests that price tends to accelerate as the newly mined supply drops after each halving, something expected to occur again. Notably, the model forecasts an average Bitcoin price of $500,000 for the 2024 to 2028 halving cycle. Given that the S2F model includes a wide prediction range from $250,000 to $1 million, a $300,000 Bitcoin remains comfortably within bounds.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $81,558, having corrected 1.5% in the past 24 hours. The asset is also red for the weekly timeframe, down 1.15%. Technically, Bitcoin is trading below the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, suggesting short- to mid-term weakness. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is at 45.26, placing it in neutral territory—not oversold but lacking bullish momentum.

Another analyst, Severino, warned that Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $81,000 and $84,500, with the buying trend suggesting that it might be topping out. This consolidation phase could indicate a period of stability or a potential correction in the near future. The near-term risk for Bitcoin includes a potential drop to $76,000–$78,000 by late April, with a possible summer low of $52,000–$56,000. This downside risk is attributed to factors such as trade wars and Federal Reserve policy changes. Arthur Hayes, a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency space, echoed this sentiment, stating that Bitcoin may start rallying again if it can hold $76,500 as support this month amid all the volatility.

The broader market sentiment also plays a crucial role in Bitcoin's price movements. According to some analysts, the current bull cycle for Bitcoin may be over, with true reversals typically taking at least six months to play out. This perspective suggests that investors should be prepared for a prolonged period of price consolidation or correction before any significant upward movement. Despite these varying opinions, Bitcoin has managed to hold steady, staying above the $80,000 mark. This resilience is notable, especially given the global stock market rout triggered by recent geopolitical events. The price of Bitcoin made a strong start to the month of April, reaching as high as $87,000 on April 2, although it couldn't sustain this level.