Bitcoin Holds $65K Despite BTCPay Drain Fears-and a 18-Block BIP-110 Split That May Already Be Over

Bitcoin at $65K: Relief Bid, Not Full Conviction

Bitcoin is holding the $65K area, but the bid still looks more reflexive than relaxed. The market pushed through resistance and peaked at $65,340 before consolidating just below the mark, while total crypto liquidations reached $192 million, including $112 million in short liquidations. That suggests leverage was flushed out as traders reacted to fear rather than building fresh conviction. If those longs unwind, the pullback could come quickly.

The first pressure point was operational, not ideological. A live BTCPay Server vulnerability allowed attackers to steal credentials and drain funds from Bitcoin Lightning nodes, with Foundation and Citadel21 reporting losses. BTCPay told operators to update immediately or take affected servers offline. The event was isolated, but it still raised concerns about Bitcoin's payment layer.

The second pressure point was governance noise turning into real fork anxiety. Nodes enforcing BIP-110 split from the main chain and ended up 18 blocks behind by evening after rejecting blocks without the signal at height 961,632. Miner support never cleared 3%, so the split looks unlikely to persist. Even so, the mere risk of a BIP-110 chain split kept traders on edge.

BIP-110 Looked Worse Than the Chain Data Suggests

Miner signaling never came close to forcing a split

The market reacted as if BIP-110 were an imminent systemic blowup, but the chain data suggests that response was stronger than the threat. Miner signaling was only 2.6%, well below the proposal's 55% signaling threshold, and the minority chain lasted only 18 blocks by evening before stalling. From block 961,632 onward, the main chain continued normally. That looks more like a failed enforcement attempt than a durable governance break.

Bulls can argue that this is where the asymmetry sits: fear was strong enough to cap rallies, yet the fork lacked the hashrate needed to force a real split. Bears can still argue that even a fake-out can cause damage, especially because BIP-110's activation timetable included block 961,632, block 963,648, and block 965,664. For now, though, the evidence points to a fork risk that is more narrative than structural.

The sharper risks were replay risk and payment stress

If a minority chain had held together, the more immediate danger would have been user error. Holders who tried to sell forked coins without separating balances could have triggered replay attacks, potentially exposing their real BTC on the main chain. That makes wallet behavior and exchange guidance more important than hash-rate theater.

The other watchpoint is payment-side stress. BTCPay Server warned users to install version 2.4.2 or turn off affected servers, and the reported losses were tied to credentials controlling Lightning nodes, not a broad on-chain settlement failure. If that pressure spreads, Bitcoin's scarcity narrative may hold, but its payment story would take a hit.

• Main-chain hashing power stayed unified
• No obvious surge in defensive fund movements
• The BTCPay issue remained concentrated in user-facing payment infrastructure

What Decides BTC Next: Hold $65K or Reveal a Squeeze

The next move is now a tape test more than a narrative debate. Bitcoin showed it can snap higher when shorts get squeezed, including during short position wipeouts. If buyers keep control after that stress peak, the market has a chance to retest higher. If not, the rally still looks conditional rather than fully convincing.

There is no reason to chase blind optimism, but there is also no reason to stay fully flat if the market continues absorbing bad headlines. The more important shift would be behavioral: traders buying relief after the minority chain stalled and after the BTCPay scare remained confined to user-facing payment stress tied to credentials controlling Lightning nodes.

The setup is cautiously constructive, but only conditionally so. If price can prove it does not need to stay hostage to split fears and payment-security headlines, the near-term bias improves.