Bitcoin Holds $64K as SpaceX's $100B Unlock Becomes the Market's Real Test

Bitcoin holds $64K as SpaceX lockup expiration approaches

Bitcoin is holding up for now, but the next major market test is SpaceX's lockup expiration on Thursday. BTC is still trading above $64,000, which suggests buyers are defending the area rather than backing away. Lockup events often pull attention, liquidity, and risk appetite toward the stock in focus. If SpaceX absorbs the added supply without a breakdown, crypto can keep stabilizing. If not, Bitcoin may face steeper headwinds.

The supply number is the core watchpoint

This is not a trivial overhang. On Aug. 6, 2026, up to roughly 911.5 million shares held by insiders could become eligible for sale. At current prices, that potential supply is worth around $100 billion. That is why the setup matters beyond SpaceX itself: the market has to decide whether demand can absorb a large new wave of shares.

Bulls need Thursday to hold, not collapse

The bullish read is that SpaceX may already have some buyers in place. Reports suggest the company lined up demand before the lockup clock ran out, and rapid index inclusion may have helped absorb part of the float. That does not remove the supply, but it could reduce the odds of an orderly breakdown. For Bitcoin traders, the signal is straightforward: if SpaceX handles the unlock without a sharp selloff, risk sentiment should improve.

Why a SpaceX unlock could still pressure Bitcoin

Float expansion matters more than headlines

SpaceX began with only 4.9% freely tradable float. That means public trading depth was always thin relative to the company's size. Add the roughly 911.5 million shares becoming eligible at this first lockup expiration, and the market is adjusting to a much wider float rather than a one-day selling event. For liquid risk assets like BTC, that matters because even moderate risk-off pressure can be enough to push traders out of leverage.

Why Bitcoin can feel the spillover

There are a few flow channels. First, diversify-buy a house captures the basic motive behind insider selling: long-term holders may simply want cash or a less concentrated portfolio. Second, the stock has already fallen 43% from its peak, so additional weakness could add pressure across other leveraged positions. Third, when a huge new supplier enters the market, investors can demand a higher risk premium across broader assets.

That last point is the Bitcoin link. If equity investors become less willing to carry risk, they often trim exposure where liquidity is best first, and BTC is one of the clearest outlets. Bears may argue the event is too small to matter on its own, but the broader watchpoint extends beyond this first unlock: Musk's 46.1% stake becomes eligible later in the schedule, which could keep pressure on risk sentiment into next month.

What would weaken the bear case

The bearish read gets less compelling if SpaceX simply holds above its $135 IPO price. That level is being watched as an important valuation benchmark. If the stock stays above it, the supply narrative loses some force, and short covering could add upside momentum. In that setup, Bitcoin could get a cleaner risk-on boost than many investors expect.

Bitcoin's near-term setup depends on levels, not narratives

Read price action first

Bitcoin's immediate setup is about levels, not SpaceX headlines. After recent SpaceX-related stress hit the market, Bitcoin fell less than 1%. That is a useful relative-strength signal and suggests BTC absorbed the pressure better than the broader mood might imply. But bulls still have not reclaimed control. To change the tape, BTC first needs to reclaim the 50-day EMA at $64,652 and then break $65,000 decisively.

The structure is still defensive

For now, the chart remains defensive. Bitcoin is above $64,000, which keeps buyers in the picture, but it is still below the 50-day EMA at $64,652 and well under the 200-day EMA at $73,069. That points to a market that has not yet confirmed a trend shift. Traders can stay patient and let price show whether SpaceX's unlock becomes a non-event or a broader risk-off trigger.

What would invalidate the cautious read

The key weakness is simple: if Bitcoin loses the mid-$64K area while equities stabilize after the SpaceX stress, the relative-strength advantage disappears. In that case, the bounce should be treated as fragile until price confirms strength again. For now, confirmation matters more than hope.