Bitcoin Holds Above $105,000 Amid Profit-Taking and Market Cool-Down

Bitcoin has maintained its position above the $105,000 mark despite recent market volatility and indecision. Bulls continue to dominate the broader trend, although momentum has slowed due to significant profit-taking. Bitcoin reached an all-time high last month, driven by increasing institutional demand and broader adoption. However, the rally has since paused, with Bitcoin trading within a narrow range and briefly dipping below $100,000 due to geopolitical tensions. The market anticipated continued upward momentum, but on-chain data suggests that long-term holders are selling into the weakening market, impeding another upward surge.

One of the key factors keeping Bitcoin within a tight range is the scale of realized profits. Over $650 billion in profits have been realized in this cycle, surpassing totals from the previous bull run. Most of these profits came from three major selling waves, and analysts believe the market is now in a cooling phase after the latest wave. According to Glassnode, the market appears to be in a cool-down phase after the third significant wave of profit-taking, indicating that while large gains have been secured, momentum is now easing as realized profitability tapers off.

On-chain data from Bitcoin analyst James Check confirmed that much of the selling has been driven by long-term holders, particularly those who have held Bitcoin for at least three years. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Funds, also stated that Bitcoin’s price stagnation around $100,000 since January is mainly due to long-term holders selling after the ETF launch. Edwards pointed out that recent purchases by 6-month+ holders, possibly institutional investors like Bitcoin Treasury companies, have absorbed a significant portion of the sell-offs, suggesting a market flywheel effect.

In addition to the significant selling activities, Glassnode also pointed out that another reason for Bitcoin’s price performance is due to its weakening on-chain volume. BTC’s on-chain volume has dropped roughly 32% over recent weeks, from a $76 billion high to around $52 billion. Unlike previous rallies, the move to $111,000 didn’t bring a spike in trading activity. Spot volume sits at just $7.7 billion—well below previous cycle peaks. This divergence further underscores the lack of speculative intensity, highlighting the market’s hesitancy and reinforcing the consolidation narrative.

Moreover, the futures markets have also shown signs of fatigue. While leveraged traders remained active during the recent $111,000 move, the appetite for risk appears to be fading. The annualized funding rates and 3-month rolling basis have decreased since the Q1 2025 high. This indicates a shift toward defensive strategies like cash-and-carry arbitrage or short positions, rather than aggressive long bets. Considering this, Bitcoin may stay range-bound because of the reduced speculative pressure and weaker trading signals until a fresh catalyst emerges.