Bitcoin Holds $104.9k Amid LTH Selling Pressure

Bitcoin's price has recently bounced back to $104.9k after retesting the $100k level, keeping it within a range-bound price zone amid low momentum. This price movement has returned all long-term holders (LTHs) to a profitable position, which often leads to selling as investors look to realize their gains. Currently, LTHs are selling more than they are acquiring, as indicated by a negative HODLer Net Position Change of -14.2K BTC. This selling pressure, combined with a lack of a clear upside catalyst, suggests that Bitcoin may remain stuck between $104k and $107k in the near term.

The market's current lack of momentum and external factors to attract new capital raises the risk of a short-term correction. The 30-Day Volatility has dropped below 1, indicating low volatility and a compressed market. Historically, periods of low volatility have preceded major price breakouts, either to the upside or downside. The longer the compression, the bigger the eventual move. However, without a catalyst for a breakout, the most plausible outcome is that Bitcoin will continue to trade sideways within the $104k to $107k range.

The prevailing conditions may also be a sign of early stages of distribution, with the Long-Term Holder Binary Coin-Days Destroyed Z-Score having climbed above 5. If this trend persists and Bitcoin fails to hold the $100,413 support level, the next logical level would sit near $97k. However, with short-term holders showing little inclination to sell and Bitcoin still below the $107k area, the most likely scenario is that Bitcoin will continue to trade sideways within the current range.