Bitcoin Holds Above $103,600 Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Macro Risks

Bitcoin is currently navigating a complex environment marked by escalating Middle East tensions and mounting macroeconomic risks, which are fueling market volatility. The flagship cryptocurrency is holding above critical support levels, with bulls maintaining control for now. However, hawkish conditions—driven by rising US Treasury yields, inflation concerns, and geopolitical instability—pose a real threat to Bitcoin’s strength. A drop below the psychological $100,000 mark could shift sentiment sharply bearish.

Analysts are divided on the future trajectory of Bitcoin. Some point to the macro environment and see potential for deeper corrections, while others remain confident, calling for an imminent breakout and new all-time highs, driven by long-term structural demand.

Supporting the bullish view, new data from CryptoQuant highlights a powerful accumulation trend among long-term holders (LTHs). According to their research, spending activity from this cohort is now near historic lows—levels typically associated with early accumulation phases. In fact, in three of the last four similar instances, Bitcoin rallied 18–25% in the following 6 to 8 weeks.

Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase following its powerful rally from $74,000 to a new all-time high near $112,000. While the market has cooled off from its peak, BTC remains resilient above the $105,000 mark—a key level that now acts as support. This tight trading range reflects a broader sense of uncertainty, as investors await clarity on rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and macroeconomic shifts before committing to the next major move.

The coming weeks will be decisive. A resolution to the Israel-Iran conflict or a shift in monetary expectations could ignite a breakout. Conversely, prolonged volatility or new macro shocks may delay the next phase of the cycle. Still, many analysts maintain a bullish long-term view, projecting that BTC could soon enter price discovery and break above its $112K ATH.

Adding to this optimism, CryptoQuant’s analyst Axel Adler points to a compelling on-chain signal. The entire Long-Term Holder (LTH) cohort is showing spending activity near historic lows, levels typically associated with accumulation phases. In three out of the last four similar cases, Bitcoin rallied 18–25% over the following 6–8 weeks. This suggests strong conviction among experienced holders.

Adler also notes that the current weakness in the LTH binary indicator is reinforced by other bullish signals: a positive shift in CDD Momentum (Coin Days Destroyed) and a still-elevated MVRV Z-score. Both metrics historically align with trend continuation and undervaluation periods.

Together, these on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin is quietly building a base, with long-term holders accumulating rather than distributing. While short-term volatility may persist, the broader structure points toward a potential breakout once uncertainty clears.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $105,569 on the daily chart, consolidating within a clearly defined range between the $103,600 support and the $109,300 resistance. This range has now been respected for several weeks, with BTC repeatedly testing both boundaries without a confirmed breakout or breakdown. The $103,600 level—Bitcoin’s previous all-time high from December 2024—has now become a critical demand zone. Buyers have consistently stepped in near this level, preventing further downside despite recent macro volatility and Middle East conflict concerns.

From a moving average perspective, BTC is still holding above the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) simple moving averages, signaling that mid-term momentum remains bullish. The 200-day SMA (red) sits far below the current price, reinforcing BTC’s broader uptrend. A daily close above $109,300 could signal a return to price discovery, likely triggering renewed bullish momentum and a potential push beyond $112K.

However, if $103,600 fails to hold in the event of renewed macroeconomic fear or negative news, BTC could drop toward the $97,000–$98,000 range. Until then, the market appears to be in a wait-and-see mode. The setup remains constructive as long as support levels continue to attract buyers and the higher time frame structure holds.