Bitcoin Holds Above $100,000 Amid Mixed Sentiment and Consolidation

Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating around the $106,000 mark, with analysts suggesting that this phase could serve as a foundation for a long-term breakout. The market sentiment remains mixed, with some investors opting to hold their Bitcoin for the long term while others are considering selling to take profits. This consolidation phase is characterized by a range-bound price action, with dynamic supports and a persistent supply zone.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has formed a triangle pattern, with almost equal lows near $100,000 and lower highs indicating sustained selling pressure. The key trendline support from March remains intact, keeping the price within a larger ascending channel. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 51, a neutral level indicating balanced momentum. If buyers fail to push above the descending resistance and the $110,000 supply zone, downside liquidity below $100,000 may become a target.

The 100 and 200-day moving averages are rising and converging for a bullish crossover, indicating that the long-term bullish structure remains intact. However, the fact that Bitcoin has been rejected multiple times from the $110,000 area makes that zone a critical decision point. A daily close above it would shift the structure bullish again, while a breakdown below the trendline support may accelerate a move toward the lower boundary of the large channel.

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has rebounded from a local low of $103,000, leaving a significant pool of liquidity behind. The price is now pushing back into a fair value gap (FVG) in the $106,000 zone, which is acting as a supply barrier. The RSI is trending higher at 55, showing mild bullish momentum, but the bearish trendline overhead still caps any impulsive move. A breakout above the FVG with strong volume could open the path to retest $110,000. Otherwise, if sellers defend this area again, we may see a sweep below $103,000, aiming for the $102,000 and even $100,000 liquidation zones.

Spot sentiment analysis shows a return to aggressive buying dominance, following a long period of neutral and sell pressure. This shift indicates that market buyers are stepping back in with confidence, absorbing sell orders at current prices. Historically, when the Spot Taker CVD flips green after extended red or grey phases, it precedes upward continuation. This renewed spot demand suggests that large buyers are positioning themselves during this range phase. If this behavior continues while the price holds above key supports, it could lead to a strong breakout. However, if the CVD starts to flatten or turn red again without price advancing, it may indicate exhaustion and foreshadow another sweep of downside liquidity or even a full-blown bearish reversal.

The broader market remains uncertain, with spot and derivatives data suggesting mixed sentiment. As the weekly close approaches, the price action is squeezed between dynamic supports and a persistent supply zone. This phase could precede a significant breakout or breakdown depending on how liquidity behaves in the coming sessions. Analysts suggest that patience may be rewarded for long-term holders, with the bulk of gains potentially still ahead despite Bitcoin's already impressive performance.

CryptoQuant analyst Avocado_onchain posted that the "Bitcoin price recently experienced a sharp decline to around $98,000, but has since rebounded to above $100,000. Although concerns about a 'double top' pattern are spreading in the market and sentiment is gradually turning bearish, as mentioned earlier, on-chain data has not yet shown any clear warning signals. Overall, Bitcoin appears to still be in a quiet consolidation phase, gathering strength. Looking at the 30-day moving average of Binary CDD, long-term holders are still choosing to hold rather than sell.

In previous analysis, it was pointed out that when the Binary CDD 30-day average exceeds 0.8, it often signals that a correction phase is imminent. However, this time, the indicator peaked around 0.6 and began to fall, indicating that the market has not shown signs of overheating. Although the data performance of each cycle is not exactly the same, the mild trend of this cycle that did not exceed 0.8 may still indicate that the market is entering a consolidation phase, with a possible further price or time correction to follow.

Importantly, this does not mean the end of the bull market cycle. On the contrary, similar to the previous two stages, we are likely to see another "staircase-like" market, welcoming a new round of gains after consolidation. Historical experience indicates that Bitcoin's explosive rallies often occur when market attention is waning and sentiment is subdued, so the current quietude may indeed be the prelude to the next major uptrend.