Bitcoin Holds Above $100,000 Amid Bullish Predictions

Bitcoin has maintained a price above $100,000 over the past few days, stabilizing around $105,000 despite recent market tensions and inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Crypto market commentator Gert van Lagen has shared a new analysis suggesting that the current phase of Bitcoin's price action is likely to precede an explosive move similar to those seen in previous market cycles. Van Lagen's prediction is backed by historical data and the Glassnode’s AVIV Ratio chart, which indicates that the current on-chain structure mirrors moments before Bitcoin’s major rallies in past bull markets.

Bitcoin’s price volatility has slightly decreased since its surge to a new all-time high above $111,800 in May. The latest candlestick structure suggests that it may be preparing for another leg higher.

Van Lagen revealed a Bitcoin price prediction centered around the true market Deviation metric known as the AVIV Ratio. This metric, represented by an orange line on the chart, tracks a specific deviation in Bitcoin’s market behavior and has always crossed a red line denoting +3 standard deviations at or just before cycle tops.

The current AVIV behavior can be compared to previous price points before market tops in previous cycles. For instance, in 2013, the AVIV Ratio flagged a major rally when Bitcoin was trading near $200, shortly before the price pushed past $1,200. In 2017, the metric behaved similarly when Bitcoin was trading at $3,700 and later peaked near $20,000. The current AVIV Ratio can also be compared to when Bitcoin was priced at $13,000 in the 2021 bull market run, before its surge to an all-time high of $69,000.

According to the analyst, today’s AVIV ratio level is closely aligned with those previous mid-cycle breakouts. The current ratio has not yet crossed the red +3σ line, which the analyst refers to as the cycle top trigger. As such, its current reading suggests Bitcoin may be in the early phase of a major bull market expansion. If history repeats itself, a 3x move from today’s levels would be a standard price move in line with previous price action.

Crypto analyst van Lagen stops short of calling for an immediate top, but his analysis implies that Bitcoin could be preparing for a new parabolic surge to the upside. Using the AVIV model as a reference, a conservative 3x multiplier on the current Bitcoin price places a possible target around $300,000.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $104,997, having decreased by 1.4% in the past 24 hours. This decline has brought its price down from an intraday high of $106,795 back into its consolidation range around $105,000.