Bitcoin HODLers Defiant Despite Bearish Sentiment

Bitcoin's short-term price action has been range-bound, but the sentiment has been intensely bearish. Despite this, the realized pricing bands suggest that holders should maintain their HODL mentality. Bitcoin fell to a local low of $93.4k on the 18th of February, but has since rebounded above the $96k mark. The next short-term price target is the $99k level.

Crypto analyst Axel Adler pointed out that the advanced Bitcoin sentiment index reflected firm bearish sentiment. This metric takes into account Open Interest, Net Taker Volume, Volume Delta, and Volume weighted average price. The bell chart in the background of the chart highlighted the most common sentiment levels over the past month, which was 43%. The press time reading of 31% showed the sentiment has swayed toward the bearish extreme.

Another of Adler’s metrics, the Bitcoin Realized Pricing Bands, showed that the market was not overextended on the higher timeframes. The realized price metric reflects the average price at which investors have purchased Bitcoin. This can be a more accurate way of looking at the market than just the current market prices. Using multiples of the realized price (RP) and looking at historical price trends, the analyst mapped out red and green alerts that marked cycle tops and bottoms. At press time, BTC was closer to the 2.4*RP than the 3.2 multiple.

Even though there is no guarantee that history will repeat, holders who don’t need to liquidate their BTC for upkeep can look to add to their holdings or just remain in HODL mode. Panic selling would likely not serve them well. Despite the Trump tariffs and sell-offs among spot ETFs, Bitcoin has held its own above the $90k mark. This was impressive, but investors should be cautious and consider the bearish sentiment before making any decisions.