Bitcoin Hits All-Time High Driven by Institutional Buying

Bitcoin has recently hit an all-time high, but the market sentiment remains cautious. The open interest of BTC futures contracts on major exchanges is generally 10%-15% below the peak in December 2024, indicating that derivatives traders' leverage usage has not reached previous highs. Binance's open interest for BTC futures contracts is currently $12.5 billion, nearly a 10% decrease from the peak of $13.7 billion in December 2024. This suggests that the current rally is primarily driven by spot trading, as derivatives traders have not returned to the leverage frenzy seen at historical highs.

The cryptocurrency market has witnessed a significant rally, with Bitcoin (BTC) reaching new all-time highs. This surge is primarily driven by whales and institutional investors, while retail activity remains notably subdued. Small wallet transactions, particularly those in the $0 to $10,000 range, have not shown a meaningful increase, indicating that the average retail investor is still on the sidelines. Historically, retail participation often lags behind institutional moves but can trigger explosive upward momentum when it finally arrives. As of May 28, 2025, BTC was trading at approximately $72,500 on major exchanges, marking a 5.2% increase within the last 24 hours. This volume surge aligns with the narrative of institutional dominance, as large buy orders are likely driving the current price action.

The current rally presents unique trading opportunities, especially with retail still absent. The interplay between stock market gains and crypto inflows highlights the importance of cross-market analysis for informed decision-making. As institutional money continues to shape the market, traders should remain vigilant for signs of retail entry, which could propel prices even higher, while preparing for volatility if large players exit early. Staying updated on on-chain data and equity correlations will be crucial for navigating this dynamic landscape.

The lack of retail activity suggests that Bitcoin’s current price surge is primarily driven by institutional and whale investors. This could mean sustained upward momentum in the short term, as institutional buying often provides a stable base. However, without retail FOMO, volatility may remain lower until smaller investors enter, potentially pushing prices higher. Traders can monitor correlations between indices and Bitcoin’s price action. For instance, the NASDAQ’s gain coincided with BTC’s rally, indicating shared risk-on sentiment. Watching crypto-related stocks can also provide insights into institutional flows, helping traders time entries or exits in BTC and related assets.

On the technical side, BTC’s price action shows a strong bullish trend, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart sitting at 68, indicating overbought conditions but not yet at extreme levels. The 50-day moving average (MA) at $65,000 provides solid support, while resistance looms near $75,000, a psychological barrier that could be tested if volume sustains. On-chain metrics further support the whale-driven narrative, with a 15% increase in transactions over $100,000 in the past week, while small wallet activity remains flat at under 20% of total transactions. This discrepancy highlights the institutional grip on the market.

In terms of stock-crypto correlation, the S&P 500’s gain alongside BTC’s rally underscores a shared risk-on sentiment, with institutional funds likely flowing into both markets simultaneously. For trading pairs, BTC/ETH shows relative stability with a ratio of 18.8, suggesting ETH is keeping pace, while BTC/SOL has risen to 420, indicating Solana’s underperformance. Traders can leverage these correlations for pair trading strategies, focusing on BTC’s dominance. The impact on crypto-related ETFs is also notable, with a 4.5% price increase reflecting institutional interest in regulated exposure. Monitoring these cross-market movements offers traders a broader perspective on potential entry points and risk management.