Bitcoin Hits $122,850 All-Time High, Altcoin Season Looms

Bitcoin recently surged to a new all-time high, reaching approximately $122,850 on July 15, 2025. This significant milestone has sparked market speculation about an impending "altcoin activation season," where funds are expected to shift from Bitcoin to high-beta assets such as Ethereum, Solana, and decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens. The options market signals a strong bullish sentiment, with the put-call skew shifting from +2% to around +5%, and implied volatility hitting recent lows. Additionally, open interest and trading volume have notably increased post-breakthrough, indicating a cautiously bullish stance among institutional investors.

The surge in Bitcoin's price can be attributed to its safe-haven status and its role as a US dollar credit asset. This rise is occurring against a backdrop of rising Japanese government bond yields, with the 20-year yield reaching around 2.61% and the 30-year yield surpassing 3%, both of which are new highs since 2000. These developments reflect market concerns about Japan's fiscal health and the normalization of interest rates, potentially leading to global arbitrage fund adjustments.

At the macro level, trade tensions between the US and the EU have intensified, with the EU planning retaliatory tariffs on $8.4 billion worth of US products. This, combined with continuous pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, has increased policy uncertainty. While the market previously anticipated a September rate cut, strong employment data and policy interference have reduced this expectation to around 70%. The upcoming June CPI data is expected to show core year-on-year inflation rising to 2.9%. If inflation continues to rise, it could further dampen rate cut expectations and push up US bond yields.

The current rise in Bitcoin's price is supported by its safe-haven attributes and its status as a US dollar credit asset. With Japanese government bond yields on the rise and global interest rate structures potentially approaching an inflection point, combined with the bullish structure in the options market, this provides a crucial structural basis for funds to shift from Bitcoin to altcoin assets.