Bitcoin Hits $118,800 Amid Institutional Surge, Retail Interest Lags

Bitcoin has reached consecutive record highs this week, yet retail investors seem reluctant to jump back into the market. The digital asset surpassed $118,800 on Friday, marking a 6% increase over the previous 24 hours and a 10% gain over the past week. This price movement has been driven by growing institutional interest and supportive signals from various sectors, yet retail participation remains subdued.

Bitwise head of research André Dragosch pointed out the lack of Google search interest in “Bitcoin” despite the asset setting consecutive all-time highs this week. He noted that the latest leg up is mostly driven by institutions. Google global search interest for the term “Bitcoin” increased by 8% from June 29–July 5 to July 6–12, coinciding with Bitcoin breaking its previous all-time high of $111,970 on Wednesday, and climbing further to $118,780 by Friday. However, Bitcoin search interest is 60% lower than the week of Nov. 10–16, 2024, the week after Donald Trump won the US presidential election. That period was followed by a month-long rally that propelled Bitcoin to reach $100,000 for the first time ever on Dec. 5.

Some Bitcoin proponents are speculating that retail investors may perceive the current price of Bitcoin as too high to enter the market. Bitcoin commentator Lindsay Stamp said, “I think a lot of retail folks find out the price of one Bitcoin is 117k and think, nahhh I missed the boat and don’t even give it a second thought.” Echoing a similar sentiment, the Bitcoin Matrix podcast host Cedric Youngelman said, “At what Bitcoin price do you think retail wakes up?” I’ll go first. I don’t think they’re coming for a long time.”

Meanwhile, demand for spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is surging, with Thursday and Friday recording daily inflows of over $1 billion, the first time this has happened on two consecutive days. Bitcoin onchain analyst Willy Woo said Bitcoin’s uptrend is far from over. “This run has plenty of legs left in it,” Woo said.

The lack of retail interest is evident in the low exchange inflows, which have fallen to decade lows. This indicates that whales, or large holders of Bitcoin, are not actively moving their assets, and there is minimal pressure from retail investors. The chart shows that spot markets sold off while futures markets bought, suggesting that institutional players are more active in the futures market. Additionally, the funding rate remains modest, even momentarily negative, further indicating a lack of retail FOMO (fear of missing out).

The current macroeconomic environment, shaped by trade wars and Federal Reserve policies, has been favorable to Bitcoin. The digital asset has maintained its position well above the crucial $100,000 psychological milestone since June. On Thursday, it climbed above $116,000, and on Friday, it rose further to over $118,000. This price action shows Bitcoin trading with heightened volatility compared to previous cycles, with technical indicators suggesting continued institutional accumulation.

The MACD indicator displays strengthening momentum, indicating growing buying pressure from sophisticated investors who view any dips as strategic entry points. Trading data reveals substantial institutional engagement, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing consistent inflows and corporate treasuries continuing to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets. This institutional interest is a key driver of Bitcoin's recent price discovery phase, as the asset moves into uncharted territory.

The RSI indicates that Bitcoin is currently in overbought territory. However, given the highly bullish analyst forecasts, Bitcoin may continue its climb, ignoring this signal. The next significant price movement for Bitcoin will likely be driven by catalysts such as financial advisor adoption timelines, regulatory developments, and broader institutional investment sentiment. The combination of reduced volatility and institutional buying suggests a period of strategic accumulation before the next major trend emerges.

Market participants should focus on portfolio allocation announcements from major financial advisory firms and any developments in crypto-friendly legislation, as these factors will likely determine Bitcoin's medium-term price trajectory. The cryptocurrency's ability to maintain current support levels while institutional clarity emerges will be crucial for sustained price appreciation.