Bitcoin Hits $117,500 All-Time High Amid Low Volatility and Supply Tightness

Bitcoin has recently reached an all-time high of $117,500, driven by a combination of factors including compressed volatility and a tightening supply. According to Glassnode, the Accumulation Trend Score has shown steady investor buying since June, with the price remaining within a narrow band. This trend culminated in a sudden price discovery above $112,000, leading to the new high.

As of the latest update, Bitcoin was trading at $116,000, reflecting a market environment characterized by low realized volatility and tight liquidity. Long-term holders continue to add to their balances, with supply growth outpacing miner issuance. This indicates a preference to hold coins until a clear price move occurs. Entities holding under 100 BTC have added 19,300 BTC per month, exceeding the 13,400 BTC per month issuance, thereby absorbing new supply into longer-term holdings.

Realized volatility across various timeframes, from 1-week to 6-month windows, is near the lowest levels recorded since December 2022. Only a small percentage of trading days since then have seen a tighter 30-day price range, while an even smaller percentage have shown a narrower 60-day range. This multi-scale compression suggests that volatility has contracted, forming a coiled structure where modest demand shifts can drive large price movements.

At-the-money implied volatility in options markets has also declined across all timeframes, with percentile ranks in the lowest decile since late 2022. This condition has historically preceded directional price moves when liquidity is thin. Glassnode’s Realized Supply Density metric indicated that 19% of the supply is positioned within a 10% band around the current price. Small price movements can significantly impact unrealized profitability for a large share of holders, thereby increasing the potential for reactive trading once the price breaks out.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US now hold a record $137 billion in assets under management (AUM), representing 6.4% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization. While net inflows slowed to $144 million last week, steady demand has moved supply into regulated investment products. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF now holds 55% of total ETF AUM and dominates ETF options open interest, with its cost basis closely aligning with broader market positioning models.

The report concluded that Bitcoin’s all-time highs occur within an environment of low realized volatility, tight liquidity, and heavy on-chain accumulation. This creates conditions where volatility builds quietly across markets while prices hold near record levels. The current market dynamics suggest that Bitcoin is poised for further price movements as the compressed volatility and tight supply conditions continue to drive investor interest and market activity.