Bitcoin Could Hit $120,000 by Q2, Driven by ETF Inflows and Institutional Interest

Standard Chartered has predicted that Bitcoin could surpass its all-time high soon, driven by surging ETF inflows and capital movement. The financial institution forecasts that Bitcoin could reach $120,000 by the second quarter of the year, highlighting the rapid ETF inflows and institutional interest as key factors fueling the surge.

Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, attributes this potential surge to several factors. He emphasizes that capital flows are instrumental to the current bullish trend. ETF inflows have strengthened over the last two weeks, coinciding with Bitcoin’s rebound from $84,000 to $99,000. Kendrick mentioned that the net real flow into spot ETFs in the U.S. has been significant, with over $4 billion in inflows over the past three weeks.

Another crucial factor is Strategy’s substantial Bitcoin accumulation. The company has continuously acquired Bitcoin since late 2024, recently reaching a significant value of over $53.8 billion. Strategy now holds 555,450 Bitcoins, which constitutes 2.6% of all Bitcoins that will ever exist. Their new strategy to raise an additional $84 billion to acquire more Bitcoin could lead to another 840,000 Bitcoins. At a $100,000 price, their holdings could surpass 6% of all Bitcoins that will ever exist.

Kendrick also noted that upcoming 13F filings from ETFs and Strategy will provide clearer insights into their investment activities. The increasing participation of major institutions, including Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, the Swiss National Bank, and Norway’s Norges Pension Fund, signals the growing acceptance of Bitcoin in conventional portfolios. At the end of December, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund held a small 4,700 Bitcoin-equivalent position in IBIT. Kendrick expects this figure to have increased, with other long-term buyers possibly joining.

Government actions in the U.S. are also noteworthy. Recent reports show that states like Arizona, New Hampshire, Texas, and Oregon are advancing significant Bitcoin reserve legislation. New Hampshire recently became the first U.S. state to pass a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill, and Kendrick believes more states will follow suit. Considering all these elements, Kendrick maintains an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s future price trajectory. However, he acknowledges that his forecast may be conservative, stating, “I apologize if my $120,000 Q2 target may be too low.”

The blend of strong ETF inflows, aggressive accumulation by Strategy, increasing institutional involvement, and supportive local policies in the United States creates a conducive environment for Bitcoin. According to Standard Chartered, a new Bitcoin all-time high is not only feasible—it may be imminent. With robust ETF inflows, significant institutional participation, and supportive regulations, the foundation for Bitcoin’s potential surge to $120,000 is strong. Investors should keep a close watch as these developments unfold.