Bitcoin Could Hit $115,000 by July as Institutional Demand Surges

Analysts at Bitfinex have predicted that Bitcoin could reach $115,000 or higher by early July this year. This optimistic outlook is driven by several factors, including strong institutional demand and significant inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The analysts highlighted that the upcoming U.S. jobs report, scheduled for release this Friday, could serve as a catalyst in the broader macro environment, potentially accelerating expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The labor data, while not expected to move Bitcoin on its own, could contribute to a series of macro factors such as disinflation signals and dollar weakness. These factors could support an earlier pivot by the Fed, which would likely benefit risk assets, including Bitcoin. The analysts noted that in a bullish scenario, driven by strong institutional interest and ETF inflows, Bitcoin could touch $115,000 or higher by early July 2025. However, they also cautioned that a pullback has caused some concern, with $95,000–$97,000 viewed as a key accumulation zone.

The U.S. May Jobs Report is projected to show 125,000 to 130,000 new nonfarm payrolls, down from April’s 177,000. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%, with average hourly earnings projected to rise by 0.2% to 0.3% month-over-month. A weaker-than-expected report could reinforce the disinflation narrative and push the Fed closer to rate cuts—a positive backdrop for Bitcoin. In contrast, a strong report could delay rate cuts and boost the dollar, potentially weighing on BTC.

Currently, Bitcoin trades near $105,000. Bitfinex analysts believe maintaining support above this level could open the door to testing the $120,000–$125,000 range in June. However, they caution that no single event will trigger this move alone. If the labor data surprises to the upside, Bitcoin may revisit support levels around $102,000 or lower. The report will likely influence short-term market action, but it remains just one component in the broader macro picture shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory.

In addition to the macroeconomic factors, the available Bitcoin supply has fallen sharply, setting the stage for potential price surges as institutional demand builds. According to Sygnum Bank’s latest Monthly Investment Outlook for June 2025, the liquid Bitcoin supply has dropped by 30% over the past 18 months. This decrease is driven by rising institutional adoption and an increase in acquisition vehicles such as ETFs. In total, one million BTC have moved off exchanges during this period, typically a bullish signal as coins are often withdrawn for long-term holding. Sygnum Bank noted that Bitcoin’s fast-shrinking liquid supply is creating the conditions for demand shocks and upside volatility.