Bitcoin to hit $1 million by 2028 due to fiat system collapse says Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2028. Speaking on the sidelines of Token2049 in Dubai, Hayes asserted that this price target is not just a possibility but an inevitability. His prediction is grounded in a macroeconomic thesis that takes into account decades of monetary policy missteps, geopolitical shifts, and the gradual collapse of the fiat system established in 1971.

Hayes views Bitcoin's price movements as a structural response to the erosion of financial sovereignty. When the U.S. decoupled the dollar from gold in 1971, it created a global financial system reliant on credit issuance, massive debt accumulation, and central bank intervention. According to Hayes, this system primarily benefits commercial banks, which issue credit, and anyone challenging their dominance often faces regulatory backlash. Bitcoin, being a decentralized, scarce, and programmable asset, stands in stark contrast to the highly centralized and inflationary fiat model.

Hayes is skeptical of politicians who claim to embrace Bitcoin, especially when it serves a populist narrative. He cites President Trump’s Executive order on the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve as an example, noting that governments buy assets for political reasons and sell them for political reasons. Hayes warns against tethering one's financial future to the whims of politics, viewing such moves as tactical appeals to voters disillusioned by economic issues rather than genuine adoption.

In the short term, Hayes believes that stablecoins, particularly USD-backed ones like USDT, will see greater real-world adoption, especially in regions with limited banking access. He cites the Middle East as a major growth market for stablecoins, noting that a significant portion of the region's population is unbanked. However, Hayes predicts that Bitcoin's dominance will rise to 70% just before it experiences unprecedented price action to $1 million.

At the core of Hayes' forecast is the principle that the fiat system must either inflate or collapse, both of which will fuel Bitcoin's rise. He argues that the amount of money that will need to be printed to maintain the current economic structure is staggering, and this will propel Bitcoin. Whether or not governments buy Bitcoin is secondary; their policies of debt expansion, currency debasement, and geopolitical fragmentation will drive more capital into decentralized stores of value.

Hayes' prediction of $1 million for Bitcoin is not based on hype but on deep skepticism about the longevity of the current financial order. He believes that a decentralized alternative is not only possible but necessary. According to Hayes, this shift is about dismantling a system that no longer works and building something better. Whether Bitcoin reaches $1 million by 2028 remains to be seen, but the conditions that could make it happen are already in place.