Bitcoin's Hidden Bullish Divergence and 2025 Uptrend Potential: Technical and On-Chain Confirmation of Sustained Momentum

The cryptocurrency market has long been a theater of volatility, but Bitcoin's 2025 trajectory is emerging as a compelling case study in sustained bullish momentum. A confluence of technical patterns, on-chain metrics, and institutional adoption is painting a picture of resilience and growth. This analysis delves into the evidence supporting Bitcoin's potential to surge toward $150,000 by year-end, driven by hidden bullish divergences and structural on-chain trends.

Hidden Bullish Divergence: A Technical Signal of Institutional Confidence

Bitcoin's price action in 2025 has exhibited a recurring hidden bullish divergence-a technical pattern where price forms higher lows while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) records lower lows. This divergence, first observed in mid-2023 and reinforced in early 2024, has historically signaled upward continuation in market cycles, as noted in an XT.com analysis. Analyst Javon Marks has highlighted its reliability, noting that each instance aligns with Bitcoin's ability to hold critical support levels, such as the $110,000 threshold.

A recent example emerged in October 2025, when Bitcoin's RSI dipped below 40 on the 4-hour chart while the price remained above $110,000-a level that has acted as robust support since October 2025, according to the XT.com analysis. This divergence suggests buyers are stepping in at lower levels, preventing a breakdown. On-chain data corroborates this, showing institutional inflows exceeding $2 billion in the past month. The 24-hour trading volume has also surged 35.12% to $65.9 billion, reflecting heightened participation from both retail and institutional investors.

On-Chain Metrics: NVT Ratio and Wallet Activity Signal Structural Strength

Bitcoin's Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio-a key on-chain metric-has reached a "golden-cross" level of approximately 1.51 in 2025. This ratio, which compares Bitcoin's market cap to its daily transaction volume, suggests valuations are supported by real usage rather than speculative fervor. Analysts argue that this level reinforces Bitcoin's role as a digital store of value, akin to gold.

Daily on-chain activity further underscores this narrative. With 735,000 active addresses and 390–400,000 transactions per day, Bitcoin's network is demonstrating robust utility. Notably, long-dormant wallets-such as a 14-year-old "Satoshi-era" wallet-have reactivated in 2025, moving 150 BTC ($16.59 million), as detailed in a Cryptopolitan report. This strategic activity, coupled with a record 270,000 BTC from seven-year-dormant wallets moving onchain, suggests early adopters are repositioning assets rather than liquidating, according to the Cryptopolitan report.

Institutional Adoption and Macro Drivers: A Catalyst for $150K+

The bullish case for Bitcoin in 2025 is not purely technical. Institutional adoption has reached a critical inflection point. Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy, has forecasted a price of $150,000 by year-end, citing regulatory advancements like the SEC's embrace of tokenized securities and the U.S. Treasury's support for stablecoins, as reported in a BeInCrypto article. A 0.2% reallocation of global assets ($46.9 trillion) into Bitcoin could inject $93.8 billion into the market, amplifying liquidity and market cap via a 10x–12x multiplier effect, the BeInCrypto article argues.

Institutional holdings now exceed $100 billion as of 2024, reducing Bitcoin's volatility and aligning it with traditional assets like gold, according to that article. Saylor's prediction is further bolstered by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and the potential for a major trade deal, which could spur global capital flows into Bitcoin as a hedge. Meanwhile, Robert Kiyosaki's $200,000 price target emphasizes the importance of emotional discipline in navigating volatility, as noted in a Coinotag piece.

Conclusion: A Convergence of Signals

Bitcoin's 2025 uptrend is underpinned by a rare alignment of technical, on-chain, and macroeconomic factors. Hidden bullish divergences, a healthy NVT ratio, and strategic wallet activity signal sustained buyer confidence. Meanwhile, institutional adoption and regulatory tailwinds provide a macro foundation for price discovery. While risks remain-such as regulatory uncertainty or macroeconomic headwinds-the evidence suggests Bitcoin is well-positioned to test $150,000 and beyond.

For investors, the key takeaway is clear: Bitcoin's 2025 trajectory is not a speculative gamble but a data-driven narrative of structural strength.