Bitcoin's Hidden Bull Divergence and Implications for a Major 2026 Rally

Bitcoin's 2025 price action has been a masterclass in technical nuance, oscillating between bearish exhaustion and bullish resilience. As we approach the end of the year, a critical question looms: Is Bitcoin poised for a 2026 rally, or is the market trapped in a prolonged consolidation phase? The answer lies in dissecting the hidden bull divergence patterns emerging in late 2025-a technical signal historically tied to trend continuation and explosive recoveries.

Technical Momentum: The Case for Hidden Bull Divergence

Hidden bull divergence occurs when price forms lower lows, but an oscillator like RSI or MACD creates higher lows, signaling weakening bearish momentum. In late 2025, Bitcoin tested key support levels while RSI formed higher lows, a classic sign of buyers stepping in during pullbacks. This divergence was reinforced by a flattening MACD histogram, indicating waning selling pressure.

The significance of this pattern cannot be overstated. During the March 2020 crash, a similar RSI divergence at $3,800 preceded a 200%+ recovery. In March 2025, Bitcoin's RSI again showed hidden bull divergence ahead of the U.S. CPI release, aligning with a shift in market expectations for Fed rate cuts. These historical precedents suggest that Bitcoin's current divergence may signal a continuation of the long-term uptrend rather than a bearish reversal.

Whale Accumulation and Institutional Tailwinds

Technical signals gain credibility when corroborated by on-chain behavior. Whale accumulation-a historical precursor to major rallies-has accelerated in late 2025, with large holders increasing BTC holdings amid oversold conditions. This aligns with the 2024 cycle, where record institutional inflows and spot ETF approvals drove demand.

Moreover, Bitcoin's price action within a bearish wedge (a consolidation pattern) suggests a potential breakout. If buyers reclaim the $100,000 support level, the wedge's upper boundary could act as a dynamic resistance, targeting $115,000 by mid-2026. This projection is further bolstered by Bitcoin's historical 1.5-year cycle from halving events, with the April 2024 halving projected to peak in October 2025.

Historical Timeframes and Trend Continuation

The timing of Bitcoin's hidden bull divergence is critical. Past cycles show that divergence patterns often precede rallies by weeks to months. For instance, the May 2025 divergence emerged as Bitcoin retested local lows, with RSI forming higher lows-a signal that historically led to 30–60% price surges within 90 days. If this pattern repeats, a 2026 rally could materialize as early as Q1, particularly if macroeconomic conditions (e.g., Fed easing) align with technical triggers.

The 2026 Outlook: A Confluence of Forces

While technicals paint a bullish case, fundamentals are equally compelling. The 2024–2026 cycle is marked by renewed institutional adoption, macroeconomic tailwinds, and a maturing crypto ecosystem. A Bollinger squeeze observed in December 2025 suggests imminent volatility, with the potential for a breakout above $90,000. If buyers dominate this phase, Bitcoin could retest the $126,000 all-time high by year-end 2026.

However, risks persist. A sustained break below $100,000 could trigger a retest of the $60,000 structural support. Traders must monitor whale activity and RSI levels for early signs of capitulation or capitulation reversal.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's hidden bull divergence in late 2025 is more than a technical curiosity-it's a signal of trend resilience in a market primed for a 2026 rally. Historical precedents, institutional tailwinds, and on-chain behavior all point to a continuation of the long-term uptrend. For investors, the key is to balance optimism with caution, using divergences as entry triggers rather than guarantees. As the calendar flips to 2026, the stage is set for a defining chapter in Bitcoin's journey.