Bitcoin's Hashrate Continues to Fall as the Price Spike Doesn't Convince Miners to Turn Machines Back On

Bitcoin’s hashrate has continued to decline in early 2026, despite a recent price rebound that pushed the asset above $95,000. Network hashrate, a measure of combined computational power used for mining, fell to 1,024 exahashes per second (EH/s) as of January 16, down from October’s record monthly average of 1,082 EH/s. This drop reflects the fragility in miner operations, where many are still struggling to cover costs amid thin margins.

The key metric driving miner behavior is hashprice, which measures the daily revenue earned per unit of hashrate. As of January 12, hashprice stood at $39.53 per PH/s/day, according to Luxor, near breakeven levels for many operators. This means that even as Bitcoin prices recover, the profitability for marginal miners remains constrained.

Miners are increasingly operating on a flexible basis, turning machines on and off depending on electricity costs and hashprice levels. This sensitivity to power costs is becoming more pronounced as energy prices remain a dominant factor in determining profitability. Fleets with lower efficiency, such as those above 25 J/TH, are particularly vulnerable to curtailment.

Why Did This Happen?

Bitcoin’s hashrate has been cooling since late 2025, even during periods of price strength. JPMorgan noted that the network's monthly average hashrate dropped from 1,082 EH/s in October to 1,074 EH/s in November before fluctuating around the 1,000 EH/s threshold in early January. This decline is attributed to miners’ cautious approach as they navigate rising difficulty and energy costs.

The decline in hashrate is also linked to Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustments, which occur roughly every two weeks. Difficulty is set to rise to 148.20T in the next adjustment window, which could further compress miner margins. Miners must wait for these recalibrations before they see potential relief, which introduces a lag between price improvements and profitability.

How Did Markets Respond?

Despite these challenges, miner stocks and publicly traded operators have outperformed Bitcoin itself. JPMorgan reported that U.S.-listed miners added $13 billion in market capitalization during the first two weeks of January 2026, with the sector now valued at $62 billion. This strength is attributed to improved fundamentals, including higher daily revenues and broader AI and high-performance computing (HPC) diversification.

Bitdeer Technologies, for instance, has emerged as the largest miner by managed hashrate, surpassing MARA. Bitdeer reported a total hash rate under management of 71 EH/s as of December, while MARA reported 61.7 EH/s. The shift reflects Bitdeer’s aggressive expansion in both mining and AI infrastructure, with the firm investing in multiple global sites.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring several metrics that could influence miner behavior in the coming months. The forward hashprice, currently priced at $38.19 per PH/s/day for the next six months, suggests limited near-term relief for miners unless Bitcoin prices, transaction fees, or energy costs change.

Difficulty adjustments are another key factor. If the next adjustment exceeds expectations, it could squeeze miner margins further, even if Bitcoin prices remain stable. JPMorgan also highlighted the importance of electricity volatility, particularly for miners in the 25–38 J/TH efficiency range, which are more exposed to cost fluctuations.

Additionally, the regulatory and grid policy landscape in Texas remains a wildcard for U.S. miners. With Senate Bill 6 enabling emergency curtailment orders for new large loads, operators must account for potential disruptions that could affect their uptime and profitability.

The next few months will be critical for miners as they balance the need to maintain hashrate with the pressure to cut costs. With Bitcoin hovering near $95,000 and hashprice near breakeven, the market is at a crossroads where the next move could either stabilize operations or lead to further consolidation.