Bitcoin's Halving Cycle Weakens as Institutional Demand Grows

Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is entering a new phase in its market cycle, as traditional patterns tied to its halving events begin to lose their influence. For over a decade, Bitcoin's price movements have been closely linked to its programmed halving schedule, which reduces the amount of new BTC entering the market every four years, creating periodic supply shocks. However, this dynamic is changing as new market forces emerge, driven by shifts in both supply pressure and institutional demand.

Crypto analyst Kaleo explained that the disinflationary trend historically led to gradual price increases following initial post-halving sell pressure from miners. However, he noted that each halving’s impact has weakened over time. As block rewards diminish and Bitcoin’s total supply expands, the influence of new issuance continues to drop. Kaleo believes the model is approaching a point where more Bitcoin could be lost annually than mined, shifting the network toward a deflationary structure. This change may force miners to rely more on transaction fees than block subsidies for revenue.

Beyond supply, Bitcoin’s demand profile is transforming. This is the first cycle with fully approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., unlocking access to deep pools of traditional capital. Institutional adoption is also growing, with entities such as Tesla, El Salvador, and GameStop adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, building long-term reserves. In the U.S., political winds are shifting too, with regulatory clarity under a pro-crypto administration potentially easing barriers for financial institutions. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s utility continues to evolve, with improvements in infrastructure, integration into decentralized apps, and wider retail acceptance across global markets.

Despite these developments, Bitcoin’s current price performance remains muted. BTC trades at $104,300, down 0.22% over the last 24 hours and 1.56% over the week. Market activity has dropped, with daily trading volume down over 40% to $18.2 billion. Immediate support holds around $104,004 while resistance sits near $105,183. Technical data from CoinCodex predicts a 5.79% rise in Bitcoin’s price by mid-July, targeting $110,288. With 60% of the past month closing in green and low volatility, the market shows modest bullish potential.

Bitcoin’s current positioning suggests a break from its long-standing halving-based cycle. Kaleo warns that supply-side impacts alone no longer explain price behavior. Instead, a broader mix of institutional demand, technological maturity, and regulatory changes is shaping a more complex ecosystem. If these elements continue aligning, Bitcoin could move into a phase defined less by fixed timelines and more by fundamental market participation. Analysts suggest that Bitcoin may enter a super cycle fueled by global adoption and tech upgrades, marking a significant shift in the cryptocurrency's market dynamics.