Bitcoin Beyond Halving: Why CoinEx Sees a More Selective, Institutional Crypto Cycle Ahead

CoinEx's base case remains a $180,000 bitcoin by end-2026, but this is a probability-weighted scenario contingent on a clear macro pivot. The exchange's research arm argues the primary driver is the global liquidity cycle, not halving-induced scarcity. For the target to play out, the Federal Reserve must shift to sustained easing, creating the conditions for capital rotation into risk and "hard" assets.

Bitcoin has crossed a structural threshold into a macro asset. Its market capitalization and liquidity now resemble established financial markets, with price dynamics increasingly shaped by institutional-scale flows. The key driver is capital rotation into hard assets when real rates fall and the dollar weakens. This view treats Bitcoin as a macro asset, where regulatory clarity and institutional infrastructure build-out are the enabling factors, not the halving itself.

Yet the reliability of the four-year halving cycle is now questioned. Price action suggests a potential peak in late 2025, with the current drawdown echoing classic bear phases. CoinEx Research argues the cycle is being "broken" under institutional pressure, as mature holders distribute long-dormant supply and ETFs absorb coins. This structural shift means the asset's path is more dependent on macro flows and policy than on the predictable scarcity narrative of the past.

Institutional Flow Infrastructure: ETFs and Derivatives

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen roughly $1.47 billion in net inflows over the past two weeks, providing persistent institutional buying. This inflow streak has helped lift prices after weeks of sluggish activity, stabilizing demand after a difficult start to the year. The capital is increasingly viewed as a 24/7, cross-border geopolitical hedge, not just a risk asset.

Bitcoin options markets show deep institutionalization, with tens of billions of dollars in open interest on platforms like Deribit. This creates a liquid infrastructure for hedging and yield generation, signaling the asset's maturation within global financial systems. The scale of committed capital supports the view of Bitcoin as a macro asset with established liquidity.

This institutional capital acts as a structural backstop, mitigating drawdown severity compared to retail-driven cycles. While on-chain buy-side momentum has weakened recently, the persistent ETF flows and deep derivatives markets provide a floor of demand. This infrastructure is re-anchoring Bitcoin's market structure within the global financial system, making it more resilient to volatility.

Current Market Structure: Fragile Demand and Behavioral Ceilings

Despite persistent ETF inflows, underlying on-chain demand is weakening. Buy-side momentum has dropped sharply, with only about 57 percent of bitcoin supply in profit. This level is historically linked to early bear market conditions, signaling that most holders are operating at a loss and may be reluctant to buy more.

The cost basis of short-term holders near $70,000 creates a key behavioral ceiling. As prices rally toward this zone, it is likely to turn into a distribution area where traders exit positions near breakeven, capping upside momentum. This dynamic can turn rallies into selling opportunities, adding a structural headwind to the price path.

Regulatory clarity remains stalled, creating uncertainty for institutional adoption. The CLARITY Act is blocked in the Senate, with the banking industry rejecting a White House compromise. This legislative stalemate leaves the market without a clear federal framework, a friction point that could slow the institutional capital rotation needed to support the $180k thesis.