Bitcoin Halving: 70% Price Surge Expected by Late 2025
2min read Bitcoin is currently at a pivotal point in its halving cycle, a phase that has historically been associated with significant bullish momentum. The halving event, which occurs approximately every four years, reduces the block reward for miners by half, thereby decreasing the supply of new bitcoins entering the market. This reduction in supply, combined with consistent or increasing demand, has often led to substantial price appreciation in the past.
Analysts are closely monitoring this upcoming halving, with many predicting that Bitcoin could break out beyond the $100,000 mark. According to the analyst's forecast, the scarcity created by the halving event could drive up the price of Bitcoin, making it an attractive investment for those looking to capitalize on its potential growth. The historical data supports this optimism, as previous halving events have been followed by significant price increases.
The halving mechanism is a fundamental aspect of Bitcoin's design, intended to control inflation and ensure that the total supply of bitcoins remains capped at 21 million. As the supply decreases, the value of each bitcoin is expected to increase, assuming demand remains constant or grows. This dynamic has been a key driver of Bitcoin's price movements in the past and is expected to play a crucial role in its future performance.
Investors and analysts alike are keeping a close eye on the upcoming halving, recognizing it as a pivotal moment for Bitcoin. The event is not only a technical milestone but also a psychological one, as it reinforces the scarcity and finite nature of the cryptocurrency. This perception of scarcity can drive demand, further fueling price appreciation.
Historically, this stage, about seven months post-halving, often marks the beginning of significant BTC bull runs. Previous cycles have witnessed strong rallies from this stage, sparking renewed expectations that Bitcoin could soon test and potentially exceed its all-time highs. The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model creator PlanB says Bitcoin remains on track for a dramatic surge by late 2025, targeting over $500k based on scarcity metrics and time-based analysis. His charts use red dots for halving periods, blue for intervals between them. Based on S2F positioning, Bitcoin might soon challenge historical resistance ($60k-$100k). The model shows strong long-term support ($10k-$30k) buffering against corrections.
Beyond technicals, market sentiment is shifting. A recent poll found almost half of the respondents doubt the traditional 4-year cycle still applies. Analyst Chris Burniske agrees, arguing the crypto market is maturing beyond these fixed patterns. He believes blockchains are evolving to core digital infrastructure, which will reshape investor behavior and expectations. With BTC/ETH ETFs live, institutional demand could support higher price floors. Burniske suggests extreme 85-95% drawdowns are now less likely for top assets. Bitcoin’s 200-week SMA continues to act as a reliable long-term support. It sets cycle bottoms around a 60% drawdown—much less severe than past crashes.
Moreover, favorable regulatory conditions in the U.S. could usher in a “Goldilocks” era for digital assets. Analysts predict steadier growth over the coming years, with less volatility but more sustainable returns. Referencing Carlota Perez’s framework, some believe crypto is moving from its volatile “Installation” phase to a “Deployment” phase of broader adoption.
