Bitcoin Gains as Trump Revives Petrodollar Debate and Venezuela Oil Moves Unfold

U.S. President Donald Trump's intervention in Venezuela's oil sector is intensifying a broader geopolitical and financial debate about the future of the petrodollar. Recent moves by the administration to seize control of Venezuela's vast oil reserves have drawn attention to the dollar's waning influence in global energy markets. The U.S. now holds a unique leverage position as the world's largest oil producer, a status Trump is leveraging to reassert the dollar's dominance.

Trump has pledged to revitalize Venezuela's oil infrastructure, with U.S. companies expected to invest billions to restore production. The move is seen as a strategic effort to counter rivals like China and Russia, who have long supported the Maduro regime. The president has indicated the U.S. may subsidize or reimburse these investments, aiming to secure lower oil prices for American consumers.

The administration's broader economic strategy includes promoting dollar-pegged stablecoins and imposing tariffs on nations diversifying away from the dollar. This aligns with the National Security Strategy published in December 2025, which emphasizes transactional hegemony and extracting value from America's global influence.

Why Did This Happen?

The shift reflects a broader trend of the dollar's declining dominance in global trade and energy. Analysts at JP Morgan note that the link between the dollar and oil has weakened, with the greenback's influence on crude prices diminishing over the past decade. In recent years, the dollar and oil have even moved in the same direction rather than opposite, signaling a structural change.

Trump's approach is also driven by economic leverage. The U.S. now produces more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined, giving it significant market power. The administration has also expanded dollar hegemony into the digital realm through initiatives like the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the Genius Act, which mandates that dollar-denominated stablecoins hold U.S. Treasury bills.

How Did Markets React?

Bitcoin prices have stabilized near $93,600, with renewed optimism in the broader crypto market as investors await clarity on U.S. Venezuela plans. Strategy Inc, the firm run by Michael Saylor, reported a $17.44 billion unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings in Q4 2025. However, analysts like Bernstein have suggested that Bitcoin may have already found its floor, with a price target of $150,000 for 2026.

The geopolitical developments in Venezuela have also had a stabilizing effect on risk appetite. Markets are now focused on how Washington will manage the oil infrastructure and whether the U.S. will maintain control over production levels. The capture of Maduro and the promise of U.S. involvement have created a degree of uncertainty but also optimism for a more predictable energy supply.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

The Trump administration's success in Venezuela will depend on both geopolitical and economic factors. Energy Secretary Chris Wright is set to meet with major oil executives to discuss the revival of the South American country's energy sector. The challenge lies in securing private sector investment in a country with a history of political instability and economic mismanagement according to reports.

In the crypto space, Arthur Hayes' Maelstrom Fund is taking an aggressive stance, betting on altcoins and privacy tokens amid a broader liquidity-driven market. Hayes has positioned Maelstrom for a new cycle of digital assets, emphasizing rising U.S. GDP and Federal Reserve expansion as key drivers. This aligns with the recent strategic investment in chain abstraction stablecoin startup River.

The interplay between oil, dollar hegemony, and crypto is also drawing attention from financial analysts. Morgan Stanley's recent filing for Bitcoin and Solana ETFs suggests a growing institutional interest in digital assets. Meanwhile, stablecoin growth and tokenization are expected to drive the next wave of financial innovation according to analysis.

Investors are also watching the performance of energy-related stocks and how the Venezuela move might impact global crude prices. The oversupply of oil and sluggish demand remain key challenges, with OPEC+ deciding to refrain from pumping additional crude in the first quarter of 2026.

The administration's actions are likely to have long-term implications for global markets. As the U.S. continues to expand its economic and financial influence, it is reshaping the rules of global trade and investment. For now, the focus remains on how this new geopolitical and economic strategy will unfold in the coming months.