Bitcoin Gains 11% Amid Tariff Easing, ETF Inflows

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown remarkable resilience, gaining 11% between April 20 and April 26, and holding near its two-month high around $94,000. This rally was fueled by signals from the Trump administration about easing import tariffs and strong corporate earnings reports. Investor confidence in Bitcoin was further bolstered by a record $3.1 billion in net inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over five days. However, a key BTC derivatives indicator showed signs of bearish momentum, raising questions about whether the $100,000 target is still realistic.

Perpetual Bitcoin futures contracts, favored by retail traders, saw a sharp negative funding rate on April 26, indicating stronger demand from sellers. This metric has been volatile since April 14, but sellers were caught off guard as Bitcoin’s price climbed above $94,000. Since April 21, over $450 million in BTC short positions have been liquidated. Some of the renewed confidence and Bitcoin’s price strength can be attributed to the S&P 500’s 7.1% weekly gain. However, despite this optimism, traders questioned the sustainability of recent gains due to uncertainty in trade negotiations.

Companies are now reporting first-quarter earnings from before the escalation of the trade war, indicating that the factors driving the stock market and Bitcoin are different. Bitcoin’s price is no longer closely correlated with the S&P 500, with the 30-day correlation standing at 29%, well below the 60% level seen from March to mid-April. This lower correlation suggests that Bitcoin is not simply a proxy for technology stocks and is gaining independence as an asset.

Gold’s inability to maintain its bullish momentum after reaching an all-time high of $3,500 on April 22 further supports Bitcoin’s status as an independent asset class. The longer BTC remains above $90,000, the more confidence investors may have, potentially paving the way for further gains. The increased demand for bearish leverage in perpetual BTC futures does not align with the sentiment of professional traders. Monthly Bitcoin futures contracts avoid fluctuating funding rates, so traders know their leverage costs in advance.

On April 26, the two-month Bitcoin futures premium (basis rate) rose to its highest level in seven weeks, indicating greater interest in bullish positions. At 6.5%, this metric remains within the neutral 5% to 10% range, but is moving away from bearish territory. The disconnect between leverage demand in perpetual futures and monthly BTC contracts is not unusual. Even if retail traders remain cautious, substantial accumulation by institutions could be enough to push Bitcoin’s price above $100,000 in the near future.

According to analysts' forecast, Bitcoin’s weakening correlation with stocks highlights its growing independence as an asset. Bullish institutional investor positioning contrasts with retail traders’ caution, supporting a rally above $100,000. Heavy liquidations played a role in Bitcoin’s return to $95,000, and the market is showing signs of a potential rally in May.