Bitcoin Gains 1.61% in Third Quarter 2025 Amidst Tight Trading Range

Bitcoin has started the third quarter of 2025 with a modest 1.61% gain, following a 0.8% daily drop that placed it within a tight trading range between $107,386 and $109,117. This performance comes after a volatile first half of the year, where the first quarter saw an 11.82% decline, followed by a 29.74% increase in the second quarter. Historically, the third quarter in post-halving years has shown significant gains, ranging from 25% to over 80%.

Despite the historical trend, Bitcoin's current performance in 2025 has diverged from previous post-halving years. The first half of 2025 did not follow the typical pattern seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021, where the first quarter delivered positive performances, followed by mixed returns in the second quarter and stronger outcomes in the third and fourth quarters. This year, the first quarter saw a decline, while the second quarter posted a rebound. The third quarter's performance so far has been relatively stable, with a 1.61% gain, but it lacks the conviction seen in past post-halving third quarters.

Bitcoin's price action continues to consolidate within a narrow band, which may determine short-term trend continuation. The ongoing pattern shows BTC respecting its support at $107,386, but upside attempts face rejection around the $109,000 region. This suggests cautious positioning from traders, even as historical data hints at potential growth in the third quarters during similar cycles. Comparatively, 2021 had a stronger third quarter of 25.01% despite a weak second quarter, showing the possibility of divergence in quarterly behavior.

As the third quarter progresses, market participants are closely watching key support and resistance levels to assess momentum. The current trading range between $107,386 and $109,117 frames short-term expectations. This narrow band continues to limit volatility early in the third quarter. Daily performance has shown little follow-through since the quarter opened, keeping price action muted. Historically, when Bitcoin maintains these tight bands in early third quarters, it often precedes sharper moves either up or down. Without significant volume increases, resistance at $109,117 may continue to suppress bullish attempts. Meanwhile, any close below $107,386 could trigger broader selling. This technical positioning may define the tone of the quarter ahead.