Bitcoin Futures Premium Drops to Three-Month Low Despite Institutional Demand

Bitcoin futures premium has fallen to a three-month low, despite the price of Bitcoin being just 8% below its all-time high of $103,300. This drop in the futures premium is unusual, given the strong institutional demand for Bitcoin, with US-listed Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording significant net inflows over the past month. The futures premium, which typically trades 5% to 15% above spot markets under neutral conditions, has remained below the neutral threshold since June 12, following a rejection at the $110,000 level. The metric has deteriorated compared to two weeks earlier, even though Bitcoin traded at $100,450 on June 5. The futures premium slipped below 4% on Thursday, marking the lowest level in three months. More surprisingly, the BTC futures metric is now lower than levels recorded in early April, when Bitcoin dropped 10% in 24 hours to $74,440.

Bitcoin options metrics have also turned bearish, with the skew metric currently at 5%, right at the edge of neutral to bearish sentiment. This stands in stark contrast to June 9, when the indicator briefly touched a bullish -5% level after Bitcoin jumped from $105,500 to $110,500. The shift highlights how traders are increasingly disappointed with Bitcoin’s recent performance. The Russell 2000 US small-cap index held the 2,100 support level, even as tensions in the Middle East weighed on investor sentiment. Recession risks also increased, with interest rates remaining above 4.25% in the United States amid persistent inflationary pressure.

Despite the bearish sentiment in the derivatives market, institutional investor demand for Bitcoin has remained strong. US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $5.14 billion in net inflows over the 30 days ending June 18. Additionally, firms such as Strategy, Metaplanet, H100 Group, and The Blockchain Group acquired significant quantities of BTC during that time. This strong institutional demand contrasts with the weakness in the Bitcoin derivatives market, suggesting that traders are not confident that the $100,000 support will hold. The longer BTC price stays near the $100,000 psychological level, the more confident the bears will become.