Bitcoin's Future Hinges on Fiat's Decline, Hayes Warns

Bitcoin May Extend Bull Run Into 2026, Arthur Hayes Suggests; Clearing $117K Seen As Key Test September 14, 2025

Bitcoin’s potential for sustained price growth has drawn attention from prominent figures in the cryptocurrency and financial sectors. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has highlighted a bullish case for Bitcoin, forecasting a price range of $750,000 to $1 million by 2026. This optimism is rooted in the anticipated structural shifts in the U.S. economy, including government intervention in financial crises, rising inflation, and the increasing adoption of Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat devaluation.

Hayes attributes his confidence to a combination of factors, including the U.S. government’s tendency to intervene in economic downturns, which has led to continuous money printing and inflation. This cycle, he argues, has suppressed the natural market corrections that traditionally occur in economic systems. By the end of the decade, Hayes warns of a generational collapse, with the U.S. government facing structural challenges due to its inability to manage debt and maintain solvency in the banking sector.

The approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S., Europe, and potentially other markets is another key catalyst identified by Hayes. He suggests that the halving event—where the rate of new Bitcoin issuance is cut in half—coupled with the approval of ETFs, could push the price to a new all-time high of $70,000 in mid-2024. This, in turn, could serve as a springboard for further appreciation into the $750,000 to $1 million range by the end of 2026.

In parallel, other analysts have also projected significant price increases for Bitcoin, citing different factors. Murray Rudd, an economic researcher, posits a model where Bitcoin could reach $444,000 by mid-2026 under various supply withdrawal scenarios. The model assumes a declining supply of liquid Bitcoin and increasing demand. Similarly, a macroeconomic analysis by industry experts suggests that Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by 2026, driven by global liquidity expansion and accommodative monetary policies from central banks.

The broader adoption of Bitcoin is a recurring theme in these forecasts. As institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds begin to allocate Bitcoin as part of their portfolios, the demand for the asset is expected to rise. This shift is already evident, with major financial firms like MicroStrategy and Coinbase integrating Bitcoin into their balance sheets and investment strategies. Additionally, the implementation of the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework and regulatory clarity in the U.S. is expected to further legitimize Bitcoin as a mainstream asset class.

Despite these bullish sentiments, potential risks remain. The market is still susceptible to macroeconomic shocks, including persistent inflation or geopolitical events, which could dampen demand. However, the overall macroeconomic environment appears to favor continued growth in Bitcoin’s value, particularly as traditional financial systems face challenges in managing liquidity and inflation.

Hayes and other analysts argue that Bitcoin’s role as a store of value is becoming increasingly relevant in a world where fiat currencies are losing their purchasing power. This sentiment is reflected in the growing number of investors seeking alternatives to traditional asset classes, with Bitcoin emerging as a preferred option due to its fixed supply and decentralized nature.

In summary, the convergence of economic, regulatory, and technological factors is creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin’s continued rise. While the exact trajectory of the price remains uncertain, the consensus among industry leaders suggests that the cryptocurrency is on a path toward significantly higher valuations in the coming years.