Bitcoin's Fragile Uptrend: Navigating Macroeconomic Headwinds and Structural Bearish Signals in 2025

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has painted a mixed picture of resilience and vulnerability. While the asset remains in a technical uptrend, growing macroeconomic headwinds-including trade war fears between the U.S. and China-and structural bearish signals from leading analysts suggest a precarious outlook. As the market grapples with liquidity constraints and shifting investor sentiment, understanding the interplay of technical indicators, Fed policy, and market psychology is critical for risk management.

Structural Bearish Signals: A Closer Look

Tony "The Bull" Severino, a market analyst at YouHodler, has sounded alarms about Bitcoin's structural challenges. On the six-week LMACD (Logarithmic Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator, a bearish crossover has emerged, signaling ongoing downward momentum. This technical signal, combined with a Doji candle on the yearly chart and an Evening Star pattern on the quarterly chart, underscores market indecision and potential bearish exhaustion.

Severino also highlights the $100,000 level as a critical psychological barrier. A failure to reclaim and hold this resistance could trigger a breakdown below $74,000, with the next downside target at $53,000. On the weekly timeframe, a harmonic "Shark" pattern suggests a potential bullish reversal at $41,000, but this remains contingent on Bitcoin first overcoming near-term resistance.

Macroeconomic Risks: Trade Wars and Liquidity Constraints

Bitcoin's price has already dipped below $80,000 amid investor fears of a U.S.-China trade war, with further declines potentially revisiting the $70,000 level. Ryan Lee from Bitget Research attributes this volatility to U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed import tariffs, which could exacerbate global liquidity constraints. Bitcoin's correlation with macroeconomic indicators-such as U.S. dollar strength and trade tensions-makes it particularly susceptible to these risks.

While André Dragosch's analysis on Fed policy and liquidity constraints remains elusive, broader market trends suggest tightening monetary conditions could amplify Bitcoin's vulnerability. Rising real interest rates and reduced liquidity often pressure risk assets, and Bitcoin's lack of intrinsic value makes it especially sensitive to these shifts.

Market Psychology and the Path Forward

Market psychology is a double-edged sword. The formation of a Doji candle and bearish reversal patterns indicate waning bullish conviction, while the ETH/BTC ratio hints at potential capital rotation into Ethereum if Bitcoin underperforms. Severino anticipates 2026 to be a pivotal year, with Ethereum potentially outperforming Bitcoin in a bearish scenario.

For investors, patience and risk management are paramount. Prolonged consolidation periods often precede decisive breakouts or breakdowns. Traders should monitor key support levels ($75,000, $70,000) and watch for confirmation of oversold conditions on higher timeframe indicators before committing to long-term positions.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's 2025 trajectory hinges on its ability to navigate macroeconomic turbulence and structural bearish signals. While technical indicators like the LMACD and harmonic patterns provide actionable insights, the broader macroeconomic environment-shaped by trade wars, Fed policy, and liquidity dynamics-remains a wildcard. As the market enters a critical juncture, a disciplined approach to risk and a focus on long-term fundamentals will be essential for weathering potential volatility.