Bitcoin's Fragile Relief Rally: Technical Indicators and Sentiment Divergence Signal a Perilous Dead Cat Bounce

Technical Indicators: A Bearish Undercurrent

Bitcoin's price action in November 2025 has been marked by conflicting signals. On November 18, the asset traded around $91,000–$91,500 after a sharp 4–5% intraday drop, failing to reclaim the critical $93,000–$94,000 support level. This breakdown aligns with a "death cross" event, where the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average-a historically bearish signal.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) further underscore the fragility of the rebound. While specific Bitcoin RSI values for November 2025 are not available, the broader market context suggests overbought conditions are waning. For instance, Monero's RSI dropped to 59-a bearish divergence relative to its price action-hints at similar dynamics in Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's MACD histogram is approaching the signal line, indicating potential bearish momentum.

Support and resistance levels remain pivotal. The $82,200–$85,800 range has emerged as a consolidation zone, with institutional activity suggesting accumulation by whales and El Salvador's recent $100 million BTC purchase. However, key resistance at $95,700 and $100,200 remains untested. A break above $95,900 is critical to validate the rebound, as this level previously rejected recovery attempts. Conversely, a drop below $88,400 could trigger further selling, with on-chain data showing 15,924 BTC (worth $1.4 billion) flowing onto centralized exchanges between November 13–18.

Sentiment Divergence: Pessimism vs. Institutional Conviction

Market sentiment in November 2025 is a study in contrasts. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 11, the lowest since the 2022 bear market, reflecting extreme pessimism. This aligns with a hawkish Federal Reserve stance and broader risk-asset sell-offs in global equities. Yet, on-chain metrics reveal a divergence. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) showed a higher low despite Bitcoin's price making a lower low, suggesting holders are retaining positions rather than capitulating. This pattern historically precedes market bottoms, as seen in March–April 2025 when Bitcoin surged 46% after a similar divergence.

Institutional activity adds another layer of complexity. Whale wallets holding over 1,000 BTC increased by 2.2% since late October, while El Salvador's "buy the dip" strategy underscores long-term bullish sentiment. Arthur Hayes, a prominent crypto analyst, predicts a dip to $80,000–$85,000 before a surge to $250,000 by year-end, framing Bitcoin as a weathervane for fiat liquidity shifts. However, this optimism clashes with the broader macroeconomic backdrop, including fading expectations for a U.S. rate cut and a $1.3 trillion crypto market valuation plunge.

The Dead Cat Bounce Hypothesis: A Double-Edged Sword

The concept of a dead cat bounce-a temporary recovery in a downtrend-gains traction here. Bitcoin's 5% rebound from $88,400 and Amazon-driven risk-on sentiment appear to fit this pattern. Yet, the lack of sustained buying pressure and the death cross signal caution. For the rebound to evolve into a trend reversal, Bitcoin must not only surpass $95,700 but also maintain above the 200-day moving average. Failure to do so would reinforce the bearish narrative, with the $82,200–$85,800 support zone becoming a critical battleground.

Implications for Investors

Investors navigating this volatile landscape must balance short-term caution with long-term perspective. The current technical setup suggests a high probability of further consolidation or a breakdown below $88,400, which could accelerate the decline toward the $80,000–$85,000 range. However, the SOPR divergence and institutional accumulation hint at a potential bottoming process.

For those with a bullish bias, the $95,700–$100,200 resistance cluster offers a strategic entry point if Bitcoin can sustain above these levels. Conversely, short-term traders should monitor the $88,400 support, as a breach could trigger a cascade of liquidations. The coming weeks will be pivotal in determining whether this relief rally is a dead cat bounce or the prelude to a broader recovery.

Source

[1] News Explorer - Brutal Wrench Attack Targets Bitcoin Holder in British Columbia [https://decrypt.co/news-explorer?pinned=1241115&title=brutal-wrench-attack-targets-bitcoin-holder-in-british-columbia] [2] Analysis: Amazon's $50 Billion AI Infrastructure Investment Boosts Cryptocurrency Market Sentiment [https://www.lookonchain.com/feeds/38322] [3] Bitcoin Price Prediction: Arthur Hayes Sees $250K [https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/bitcoin-price-prediction-arthur-hayes-sees-250k-but-my-btc-price-analysis-points-to-bull-trap-and-74k-first/] [4] BTC Price Rebounds to $86K After Resistance Rejection [https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/bitcoin-price-today-btc-price-rebounds-to-86k-after-resistance-rejection-eyes-88k-90k-zone] [6] Did Bitcoin Just Turn Bullish With a 5% Rebound? [https://www.tradingview.com/news/beincrypto:529fe5a47094b:0-did-bitcoin-just-turn-bullish-with-a-5-rebound-2-resistance-levels-say-not-yet/] [7] Crypto Fear & Greed Index [https://www.alphastreet.com/crypto-fear-greed-index/] [9] U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Impact on Risk Assets [https://www.bloomberg.com/feeds/federal-reserve-policy-impact-2025] [14] Death Cross Analysis in Bitcoin's Moving Averages [https://www.tradingview.com/analysis/death-cross-btc-2025] [18] On-Chain Exchange Inflows and Selling Pressure [https://www.lookonchain.com/feeds/18] [22] Whale Activity and Institutional Accumulation [https://www.bitcoinwhaletracker.com/2025] [25] El Salvador's Bitcoin Purchases [https://www.saltofficial.gov.sv/bitcoin-purchases-2025]