Bitcoin Flywheel Falters as Metaplanet Digs Deeper for 210,000 BTC

Metaplanet, a Tokyo-listed investment firm, is currently raising $1.4 billion through new share offerings to expand its Bitcoin treasury, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 20,136 BTC, valued at approximately $2.24 billion, as of September 8, 2025. The capital increase involves the issuance of 385 million new shares at a price of 553 yen each, representing a 9.93% discount from the closing price on September 9. This move is part of the company’s broader strategy to offset domestic economic challenges, including a weakening yen, high government debt, and prolonged negative interest rates.

The firm has been steadily accumulating Bitcoin as a primary treasury asset, with its average cost per Bitcoin standing at $102,495. The most recent purchase occurred at $112,180 per BTC, indicating continued institutional confidence in the cryptocurrency despite short-term price volatility. Metaplanet’s Bitcoin holdings represent 66% of its year-end target of 30,000 BTC for 2025 and 20% of its 2026 goal of 100,000 BTC. By 2027, the company aims to hold 210,000 BTC, which would constitute 10% of the total Bitcoin supply.

Analysts have observed that Metaplanet’s accumulation strategy aligns with broader institutional adoption of Bitcoin, which has historically driven price surges. The firm’s recent purchases, particularly the $15.26 million addition of 136 BTC, highlight a calculated approach to building a substantial position in the cryptocurrency market. The company's total Bitcoin value has now exceeded $2.08 billion, placing it among the top global corporate holders of the asset.

Despite the firm’s aggressive accumulation efforts, its stock price has faced downward pressure, correcting more than 17% over the past week and trading below 700 yen. Analysts suggest that the stock’s decline may present a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors, especially as the firm continues to execute on its Bitcoin purchase strategy. The company's Power-law Quantile Model suggests that 705 yen could represent a potential floor price for its shares, while the median fair value is estimated at 1,332 yen.

The company's strategy relies heavily on the performance of its stock price to fund further Bitcoin purchases. However, recent market dynamics have seen a slowdown in the flywheel model, with the premium over its Bitcoin holdings dropping significantly. This has raised concerns among investors about potential shareholder dilution, particularly as the firm continues to issue new shares.

Metaplanet’s continued investment in Bitcoin underscores the growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies as a store of value and inflation hedge. The firm’s strategic accumulation has not only bolstered its portfolio but also contributed to a broader narrative of Bitcoin's potential as a long-term asset. Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin continues to trade above its average cost basis of $102,495, Metaplanet is likely to maintain its accumulation strategy, further reinforcing its position in the market.