Bitcoin Flow Breakdown: ETF Outflows and Liquidity Pressure

The immediate pressure on Bitcoin is coming from institutional capital flows. Yesterday, the U.S. spot ETF complex saw a net outflow of about $272 million. That is the precise metric driving the recent price slide, as selling from funds like Fidelity's FBTC and ARKB outweighs inflows into iShares' IBIT. This is not a broad exit from Bitcoin, but a targeted de-risking and rotation within the ETF wrapper, confirming the shift from accumulation to profit-taking.

That selling pressure is now pushing price toward a critical pre-election support level. Bitcoin has fallen sharply, trading back around $64,000–$65,000 after a single-day slide of 11%–13%. This move aligns with the pre-U.S. presidential election level of $70,000 flagged as a key inflection point by Citi. The ETF outflows are the on-chain mechanism forcing the price toward that floor, as large accounts cut leverage and reposition.

While trading volume remains high at $83 billion, the direction of that flow is the critical factor. The combination of shrinking ETF assets-down to about $97 billion-and massive turnover shows an ecosystem de-levering quickly. The liquidity is still there, but the negative flow direction indicates sustained selling pressure that must be absorbed before any meaningful bounce can occur.

Market Structure: Downtrend Confirmation and Key Levels

The technical setup confirms a sustained bearish structure. Bitcoin has broken its recent higher high and higher low formation, establishing a clear lower high/lower low pattern. This change of character (CHoCH) is the defining signal of a downtrend, with the most recent swing low at $74,604 now acting as critical support. A break below this level would accelerate the decline.

Immediate resistance is capped by the bearish Supertrend indicator, which sits around $76,206. Price action shows the asset struggling to gain traction above this level, with the indicator remaining in the red zone. The next key resistance zone to watch is between $77,500 and $80,000, where prior rejections have occurred. For a trend reversal, Bitcoin must first clear the immediate $76,206 barrier and then break above the recent lower high at $79,396.

The longer-term trajectory points to the 200-week Simple Moving Average as a major floor. Analysts note that historical precedent suggests a drop below the 100-week SMA often leads to a continued slide toward the 200-week SMA. With Bitcoin's current price around $71,206, a failure to hold support near $71,000 could see it target the 200-week SMA at approximately $57,600. This level represents the ultimate downside if the downtrend accelerates.

Catalysts and What to Watch

The immediate catalyst for a trend reversal is a sustained shift in ETF flow direction. The recent net outflow of about $272 million confirms the liquidity drain is active. For the downtrend to stall, we need to see a return of net inflows, signaling that the profit-taking phase is ending and accumulation is resuming. Until then, the negative flow will continue to weigh on price.

The critical level to watch is the pre-U.S. presidential election floor of $70,000. This is the key inflection point identified by Citi. A break below this level would signal a deeper correction, potentially accelerating toward the 200-week SMA. Holding above it, even with choppy action, could stabilize the trend and allow for a consolidation phase. The market is at this decisive juncture.

Monitor the 24-hour trading volume for signs of capitulation or accumulation. High volume on down days indicates forced selling and potential exhaustion, while rising volume on up days suggests new buying interest. The current $83 billion volume shows intense turnover, but the direction of that flow is what matters. A shift from outflows to inflows, confirmed by volume, would be the clearest signal that the de-leveraging cycle is complete.