Bitcoin Flash Crash Recovery to $100K May Take 6 Months: Analyst

Bitcoin closed its weekly candle below $75,000, breaking below its 100-week moving average, a key trendline. This marks the first time since October 2023 that BTC has lost this macro-level support. Analysts are weighing whether this signals the start of a deeper bear market and what it could mean for Bitcoin's long-term recovery.

The 100-week SMA has historically been a reliable indicator of prolonged drawdowns. Past bearish breakouts have lasted between 182 and 532 days. During the 2018–2019 cycle, Bitcoin spent 182 days under the 100-week SMA as prices consolidated between $3,000 and $6,000. In 2022, after the FTX collapse, the coin remained below the SMA for 532 days, fluctuating between $16,000 and $25,000.

Historical performance suggests a pattern of extended accumulation phases rather than rapid rebounds. This means the next bullish period may require significant time before reemerging.

Why Did This Happen?

Bitcoin's recent weekly close below the 100-week SMA aligns with prior bear market patterns. This includes the 2014–2015 cycle, where BTC spent 357 days under the level after the 2013 bull peak, and the 2022 period, where the coin spent more than a year consolidating after the FTX collapse. Each instance was marked by an accumulation phase rather than an immediate rebound, signaling that time might be a key factor before the next bullish period.

Analysts note that the current move mirrors the 2022 correction. BTC is forming lower highs, losing the 100-week SMA, and potentially preparing for a deeper correction. The weekly chart pattern also resembles a head and shoulders formation, a classic bearish setup that could suggest further downside if confirmed.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

A key focus for analysts is the $85,000 to $95,000 range, where over $120 billion in spot volume was traded in Q4 2025. This area could become a major resistance zone, with many BTC holders still underwater. If Bitcoin fails to break above this range, it may struggle to regain momentum.

Another critical indicator is the USDT dominance chart. Analysts point out that a weekly close above 7.2% could confirm bearish conditions. This is the first such close in more than two and a half years and may signal the start of a new bear market.

The MVRV Z-score, a metric that compares Bitcoin's market value to realized value, has reached record lows. This has led some analysts to suggest that Bitcoin is more undervalued than at any point during previous bear markets, including 2015, 2018, and 2022. If the Z-score continues to trend downward, it could indicate the current correction is nearing its bottom.

What Are the Broader Market Implications?

The current Bitcoin bear market is also affecting traditional assets. SmartStop Self Storage (SMA), a real estate investment trust, has seen mixed earnings results. While the company maintains a strong 92.6% occupancy rate, its Q3 2025 FFO came in below forecasts. The stock price declined 0.88% following the earnings release, reflecting investor uncertainty.

Technical indicators for SMA show a bearish bias. The RSI and MACD are both below neutral levels, and the stock is trading below multiple moving averages, including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day. This suggests a continuation of the current downtrend unless a strong reversal occurs.

Looking ahead, analysts are watching for any signs of a shift in the macroeconomic environment. Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Governor, has emerged as a contender for the next Fed chair under the Trump administration. If appointed, his pro-inflation-risk stance may further dampen risk assets, including Bitcoin.

What Is the Outlook for Recovery?

Despite the bearish indicators, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic. The MVRV Z-score suggests that Bitcoin is undervalued, and past bear markets have historically been followed by strong bull runs. If the current correction continues along the 2014–2015 and 2022 patterns, it could take between six months and a year before Bitcoin regains its upward momentum.

The key for investors is to monitor the 100-week SMA. If Bitcoin can reclaim this level, it could signal the start of a new bullish phase. Until then, the focus remains on consolidation and patience.