Bitcoin Could Fall to $10,000 as U.S. Recession Risk Builds, Mike McGlone Says

Bitcoin’s recent decline has drawn attention from analysts, who see it as a potential indicator of broader macroeconomic stress. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone argued that the slide may foreshadow a U.S. recession. He pointed to stretched stock valuations and low volatility as signs of a risk asset cycle unwinding according to McGlone.

Standard Chartered has reduced its Bitcoin price forecast from $150,000 to $100,000 and warned of a possible drop to $50,000. The bank cited slowing corporate demand and uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy as key factors. ETF outflows and macroeconomic concerns also contribute to the bearish outlook according to Standard Chartered.

Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin could take 12 to 24 months to recover from a 50% drop. However, institutional demand and regulatory clarity could shorten the timeline. If macroeconomic conditions worsen, the price could stagnate between $45,000 and $70,000 through 2026 according to financial analysis.

Why Did This Happen?

Mike McGlone highlighted Bitcoin’s close relationship with the S&P 500, suggesting that a decline in equities could trigger a sharper drop in Bitcoin. He noted that both assets are trading near 7,000 when Bitcoin is divided by 10 or the S&P 500 is measured directly. This correlation highlights Bitcoin’s role as a high-beta proxy for risk appetite according to Finbold analysis.

McGlone also warned that the long-standing 'buy the dip' mentality may be ending. He pointed to the U.S. stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio reaching its highest level in about a century and low volatility in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 as key risk indicators according to McGlone.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Market analyst Jason Fernandes countered McGlone’s view, arguing that a drop in Bitcoin to $10,000 would require a severe systemic shock and is a low-probability event. He emphasized that market imbalances can resolve through time, rotation, or inflation erosion according to analysis.

Standard Chartered and other banks remain cautious, with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs maintaining higher price targets of $170,000 and $200,000 respectively. These targets are based on assumptions about institutional inflows and regulatory clarity according to Standard Chartered.

How Could Bitcoin Recover?

Technical analysis suggests a bearish divergence in early February, indicating a pullback to $48,756. This follows Standard Chartered’s second major downgrade as Bitcoin’s price continues to trade below optimistic forecasts. A base scenario predicts Bitcoin closing between $90,000 and $100,000 in 2026 if the Fed holds rates near 4% and ETF flows stabilize according to financial analysis.

Metaplanet, which holds a large Bitcoin treasury, expects further growth in 2026 despite a large non-cash valuation loss due to Bitcoin’s price decline. The company's strategy aims to hedge against fiat currency dilution and benefit from Bitcoin’s value appreciation according to Coindesk reporting.

What Does This Mean for Investors?

Bitcoin ETFs currently hold over $117 billion in assets, making a full recovery plausible if conditions improve. However, the timeline remains uncertain. If the Fed maintains rates near 4% and ETF flows stabilize, a base scenario projects Bitcoin closing between $90,000 and $100,000 in 2026 according to financial analysis.

Institutional demand and regulatory developments will play a key role in determining Bitcoin’s recovery path. A drop in Bitcoin to $10,000 remains a low-probability event unless a severe systemic shock occurs according to McGlone.