Bitcoin Faces Volatility as Key Economic Indicators and Regulatory Developments Loom

Bitcoin traders are preparing for a week of potential volatility as several key economic indicators and regulatory developments are set to influence the cryptocurrency's price direction. The U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to release May's consumer credit figures, which are expected to show a $10 billion increase, bringing the number closer to the March figure of $10.85 billion. If the reported number falls short of the forecast, it may reflect growing caution among households, potentially pushing capital toward speculative crypto assets like Bitcoin.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release minutes from its May meeting. The minutes are expected to show internal debates around inflation risks and rate decisions. If the language is seen as hawkish, it may signal reduced chances of rate cuts, leading to a stronger dollar and adding pressure on Bitcoin. Interest rate futures currently suggest a 95.3% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in its July 30 meeting.

Unemployment data, due Thursday, will measure the number of Americans who filed new claims for jobless benefits last week. Forecasts now estimate 235,000 claims. An increase could indicate a weakening labor market, potentially supporting demand for assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, fewer jobless claims would reinforce confidence in the U.S. economy, possibly strengthening the dollar and pressuring crypto prices.

On Wednesday, the House Ways and Means Oversight Subcommittee will hold a hearing titled “Making America the Crypto Capital of the World.” The session will explore the future of digital asset taxation and discuss how to build a regulatory structure to support crypto development without imposing excessive tax burdens. While no policy decisions are expected that day, any discussion around tax relief for digital assets could influence sentiment and investor confidence in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's price has shown a marginal −0.17% intraday move, and a +0.90% gain over the last 7 days. BTC holds a market capitalization of $2.15 trillion, maintaining its dominance at 62.9% of the total crypto market. BTC remains just −3.23% below its all-time high of $111,814, confirming its continued strength and institutional positioning within the current macro cycle.

From a market structure perspective, BTC is consolidating tightly between $107.5K and $109.5K, forming what analysts describe as a compressed range pattern, likely setting up for a volatility breakout. If bulls push above the $110K psychological barrier, the next expansion level targets are set at $114,500 and $118,000, while failure to hold $107K could expose the CME gap at $103,800.

Sentiment remains broadly bullish, as highlighted by the 82% positive community score on CoinGecko, and increasing retail participation noted across major exchanges. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s network activity remains healthy, with high miner participation, stable hash rate, and low average fees, signaling a balanced on-chain environment.