Bitcoin Faces Urgent Quantum Threat, 30% of Coins at Risk

Bitcoin is currently facing an urgent threat from the advancements in quantum computing, which could potentially compromise its cryptographic security within the next five years. This situation demands immediate upgrades to safeguard its market value, which is estimated to be around $2.2 trillion. The rise of scalable quantum supercomputers, such as Microsoft’s Majorana chip, has accelerated the timeline for quantum attacks, putting Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography at unprecedented risk.

David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol, has emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating that "The time for theorizing is over. Concrete steps must be taken now to protect Bitcoin from quantum threats before it’s too late." Bitcoin’s foundational security relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), which has remained unbroken for over 16 years. However, the advent of quantum computing introduces a paradigm shift. Unlike classical computers that process operations sequentially, quantum computers perform calculations in parallel, exponentially increasing their computational power. This capability directly threatens Bitcoin’s cryptographic algorithms, particularly the ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) that secures private keys.

Microsoft’s Majorana chip marks a significant breakthrough by enabling scalable and stable quantum systems, drastically shortening the timeline for practical quantum computers. With approximately 100 quantum machines currently operational worldwide and projections estimating 5,000 by 2030, the risk to Bitcoin’s security is no longer theoretical but imminent. This development underscores the urgent need for the Bitcoin community to transition from theoretical discussions to actionable upgrades.

Approximately 30% of Bitcoin, equating to around 6.2 million coins, are held in addresses using pay-to-public-key (P2PK) or reused pay-to-public-key-hash (P2PKH) formats, which are particularly susceptible to quantum attacks. The transparency of the blockchain means that once quantum computers reach sufficient capability, previously secure transactions and wallets could be compromised retroactively. This “harvest now, decrypt later” strategy by malicious actors poses a grave threat to holders and the broader ecosystem.

Notably, BlackRock’s recent spot ETF filing acknowledges this quantum risk, signaling growing institutional awareness. The potential for a single compromised wallet to undermine trust in Bitcoin’s security highlights the critical need for preemptive measures. “Q-Day” refers to the moment quantum computers can effectively break traditional cryptographic protections. Given the permanent and transparent nature of blockchain data, Bitcoin transactions validated today could become vulnerable in the future. This necessitates proactive defense mechanisms to safeguard the network.

While a full blockchain upgrade to post-quantum cryptography would require a hard fork—a contentious and complex process—alternative approaches exist. Hybrid security models, quantum-secure key management, and layered transaction protections offer viable paths to enhance security without disrupting the base layer. These solutions can provide incremental resilience while the community navigates the challenges of consensus and user experience.

Implementing quantum-resistant protocols involves balancing security with network stability. Hard forks risk fragmenting liquidity and alienating long-term supporters, which explains the community’s hesitance. However, delaying action increases exposure to quantum threats, potentially eroding Bitcoin’s foundational trust. Innovative proposals like BIP-360 (Pay-to-Quantum-Resistant-Hash) and commit-delay-reveal schemes represent promising theoretical frameworks but require rigorous testing and adoption. Collaboration among developers, institutions, and stakeholders is essential to devise practical, scalable solutions that maintain Bitcoin’s integrity and usability.

Bitcoin’s resilience over the past 16 years is a testament to its robust cryptography and decentralized design. However, the accelerating progress of quantum computing demands immediate and decisive action to protect this legacy. The community must prioritize upgrading Bitcoin’s cryptographic infrastructure to withstand future quantum attacks, embracing evolution rather than complacency. As David Carvalho emphasizes, the most significant risk is not quantum technology itself but the failure to adapt in time. The future of Bitcoin depends on proactive innovation and collective commitment to quantum-secure solutions.