Bitcoin Faces Resistance at $109,471 as June Cycle Peak Looms

Bitcoin is currently trading just above its Bull Market Support Band, with resistance at $109,471 slowing down the bullish momentum. This situation is reminiscent of previous macro-cycle tops, as June's historical pattern continues to be a focal point in market analysis. The third-year June window has repeatedly aligned with cycle tops before major bear markets began, drawing closer scrutiny from analysts and market participants. The current setup raises questions about whether history is preparing to repeat itself.

After the breakout phase above $100,000, Bitcoin approached $109,471 but failed to close above that key ceiling. As the price now hovers near $104,476, structural momentum appears to be slowing. Bitcoin’s weekly candlestick shows reduced upper wick rejection, a sign that bulls are struggling to push through resistance. Bitcoin has held above the 20-week EMA and 21-week SMA—its Bull Market Support Band—since March 2023. This support range now sits between $94,570 and $96,508, a zone that has provided consistent bullish bounce points. Market reactions near this band often define the broader cycle trend, and this time is no different.

The price has printed multiple higher lows since November 2022, reinforcing a bullish structure. Yet, with each test of the upper range, strength is diminishing. Bitcoin’s latest weekly high of $109,600 came with a quick rejection, bringing the price back down by over 4% intraday. A pullback to the support band would test trader conviction and potentially define the next leg. Bitcoin’s alignment with June as a cycle peak date continues to fuel debate over future trajectory. With the 2014 and 2018 cycles both peaking around June 3rd, many are asking—will 2025 follow the same rhythm?

This current structure includes clear resistance at $109,471, compressing price action and suppressing volatility. Bitcoin has seen a $6,200 intrarange spread this week alone, revealing indecision. Despite strong institutional accumulation and decreasing liquid supply, breakout momentum has stalled. The broader mood around Bitcoin remains optimistic, but cautious. Price behavior now mirrors prior Wyckoff-style reaccumulation, and the psychological level at $110,000 has proven sticky. Traders must evaluate whether this is a final consolidation before fresh all-time highs or the calm before a trend reversal.

Bitcoin will need to hold the Bull Market Support Band convincingly to maintain the macro bullish structure. A close below $94,570 could mark a critical breakdown in sentiment. With Tether minting $1B in new USDT and historical echoes stacking, Bitcoin is at a critical juncture—testing its structure, memory, and momentum. The recent price correction in Bitcoin, which saw it drop from approximately $111,000 to just above $104,000, has been attributed to rising geopolitical tensions. Despite these challenges, several analysts maintain that Bitcoin's long-term bullish trajectory remains intact. Contributor Carmelo Aleman highlighted the Bitcoin Yearly Percentage Trend, a pattern that tracks BTC’s annual price performance since 2011. This trend reveals a recurring cycle of three bullish years followed by one year of consolidation, aligning closely with Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. According to Aleman, if Bitcoin maintains its current growth pace, it could climb 120% in 2025, potentially reaching as high as $205,097. This would mark the cycle top for the year and complete another full bullish cycle.

Supporting this outlook, other cyclical metrics such as Realized Cap continue to post new all-time highs in 2025. Aleman's analysis suggests that the Bitcoin Yearly Percentage Trend is a valuable tool for investors, allowing them to filter out daily market noise and reconnect with Bitcoin’s true cyclical nature. This structural rhythm, characterized by three years of expansion followed by one of compression, provides a consistent framework for understanding Bitcoin's long-term price movements. Beyond the Yearly Percentage Trend, several on-chain metrics continue to support a bullish case for Bitcoin. Notably, both whale and retail BTC inflows to Binance have dropped to cycle-lows, often a sign that investors are holding in anticipation of further gains. Whales also appear to be accumulating ahead of a potential breakout. Analyst Amr Taha reported that Bitcoin whales withdrew 4,500 BTC from Binance on June 16, a move historically associated with price rallies. However, caution remains warranted as on-chain data indicates that short-term holders have been selling into the recent dip, which could temporarily suppress price momentum. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $104,079, down 1.6% over the past 24 hours.

The resilience of Bitcoin amidst escalating geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance underscores its strength as an asset. The ability to hold higher lows above $105,000 signals a robust market, with key resistance levels at $106,500. This resilience is further supported by the potential for a sustained breakout, which could signal a resumption of the 2024 rally. The rally saw Bitcoin rise 120% after ETF approvals and Fed easing expectations, highlighting the asset's potential for significant gains in the coming months. As investors prepare for the next bull cycle, the current market conditions present an opportunity to align strategies with Bitcoin's growth trajectory, ensuring they are well-positioned to capitalize on its long-term potential.